Mekelle,Narobi,Pretoria,London, March 8፡2025 (Tigray Herald)
Is Fano a Blessing or a Curse for the Amhara People?
By Asefa Shiferaw
Two weeks ago, on February 28, 2025, Martin Plaut and Eyob Tilahun Abera published an East African analysis, suggesting that Fano is emerging as a key actor and alternative force in the Horn of Africa. While some aspects of this analysis may hold true, the reality on the ground appears to be quite different.
Some of the issues raised by Fano are indeed justifiable and important, but these alone do not lead to meaningful achievements. There are several reasons why Fano’s struggle may not be successful, or why doubts surround its effectiveness.
1. Lack of a Clear Mission and Goal:
Fano initially formed as part of the allied Querro movement, consisting mainly of Oromo youth, with the primary goal of struggling against the TPLF/EPRDF regime. Some members of Fano vehemently opposed the TPLF, accusing them of introducing ethnic federalism, which they believed would lead to the disintegration of Ethiopia’s sovereignty.
Others within Fano argued that the Amhara people were marginalized and affected by the introduction of regional languages in some parts of the country.
However, despite the removal of the TPLF/EPRDF regime, the constitution and regional administration structures have remained largely unchanged. Many in Fano have accepted the regime’s removal but have failed to raise or address the core issues that could shape a lasting agenda. This suggests that Fano lacks a clear mission, goal, and a program to rally people and continue the struggle beyond merely opposing the regime.
2. Lack of Unity Among Fano Groups:
At the beginning of the conflict, Fano was divided into four main groups: Gojam, Gonder, Wello, and Shewa. Two of these groups, Wello and Shewa, have lost the capacity to sustain an ongoing fight against the federal government. Meanwhile, most of the Gonder Fano have been collaborating with the federal government through mediators such as Agegnew Teshager, Tamagn Beyen, and Zinash Tayachew, who is married to Prime Minister Abiy and hails from Gonder.
Some sources indicate that these mediations are not only directed at the Gonder Fano but also at those in western Tigray. Traditionally known for their warrior ethos, the Gonder Fano have not contributed significantly to the current struggle due to their involvement in the mediation process, conspiracy, and possible benefits.
3. Fano’s Media Influence Exceeds Its Ground Presence:
Fano has garnered significant media attention, particularly from Amhara media outlets abroad, such as Mereje and others. However, the reality on the ground is quite different. At the onset of the conflict, the media coverage led many supporters to believe that Addis Ababa would fall quickly under the pressure of Fano forces.
These media outlets have primarily focused on local Fano groups, rather than promoting regional unity and integrity. As a result, only the Gojam Fano have made substantial contributions to the Amhara struggle, while other factions failed to achieve any significant success. Furthermore, Fano had expected substantial support from the Amhara elites and the diaspora, but this did not materialize, as many were fearful of the federal government and ashamed of their previous involvement in bringing Dr. Abiy to power.
4. The Amhara Region is Occupied by “Shifta,” Not Fano:
Some media and scholars have claimed that the Amhara region, particularly its rural areas, is occupied by Fano, but this is far from the truth. Most of the rural areas are controlled by locally known groups referred to as “shifta” — individuals with rifles who live in scattered groups. Fano has not established formal administration in any area, except in a few districts in the Gojam zone.
This indicates that Fano has been unable to establish any formal governance structures to maintain its territory independently from regional or federal government control. These efforts collapsed during the first six months of the war in the Amhara region. Some sources also suggest that the federal government may have deliberately weakened the region to more easily control it and restore peace.
5. Lack of Regional Allies for Fano:
Currently, Fano is in need of regional alliances, either with the TPLF, OLF, or beyond, to Eritrea or Sudan. However, Fano has engaged in conflicts with many Ethiopian ethnic groups, including the TPLF and OLF. Moreover, Fano has no clear political program that could appeal to these potential allies. While the TPLF and OLF might have some interest in allying with Gojam Fano, this group does not represent all Amhara Fano and cannot guarantee unity among them.
In reality, Fano is not emerging as an alternative power in East Africa. Instead, it seems to be prolonging the suffering of the Amhara people unless they unite and gain full support from their community, both inside and abroad, with a clear program that addresses the concerns of all Ethiopian stakeholders.
Assefa Shiferaw (A.S.A) (PhD Candidate, Mekelle University, Tigray, Ethiopia)
assefaherm@yahoo.com
