Mekelle,Nairobi,Pretoria,London,March 10፡2025 (Tigray Herald)
A Critical Warning from General Tsadkan Gebretensae: The Imminent Ethiopia-Eritrea War
Introduction
General Tsadkan Gebretensae, a highly respected military strategist and one of the foremost experts on the Horn of Africa’s geopolitical and security dynamics, has issued a stark warning about the growing risk of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. With decades of experience in military leadership, diplomacy, and regional security, his insights carry significant weight—making his latest assessment both urgent and impossible to ignore.
The Looming Conflict: An Inevitable War?
In a comprehensive analysis published by Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review, General Tsadkan warns that another full-scale war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is not merely a possibility but an inevitability unless immediate preventive measures are taken. He outlines the key factors driving this impending conflict, including:
The failures of Ethiopian and Eritrean leadership in addressing longstanding political and military tensions.
Escalating militarization on both sides, increasing the likelihood of direct confrontation. Regional and international implications, which could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa.
His analysis exposes the miscalculations, political blunders, and reckless strategies that have fueled this crisis, emphasizing the urgent need for diplomatic and security interventions before the situation spirals out of control.
Implications for the Pretoria Peace Agreement and Tigray’s Political Crisis
The resurgence of hostilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea would have profound consequences,particularly for:
The Pretoria Peace Agreement:
The fragile accord, which sought to end the devastating war in Tigray, risks complete collapse if Ethiopia and Eritrea re-engage in conflict. The agreement’s failure would undermine international diplomatic efforts and plunge the region into renewed chaos.
Tigray’s Political Crisis:
As Tigray continues to navigate its post-war challenges, a new Ethiopia-Eritrea war could further fragment its political landscape, weaken its security stability,and exacerbate internal divisions.
A Call to Action: Strategic Roadmap for Preventing War
This critical analysis is essential reading for all Tigrayans—regardless of political affiliation—and for the international diplomatic community seeking to understand and mitigate the crisis.
General Tsadkan’s recommendations provide a strategic roadmap to prevent escalation, urging:
Decisive diplomatic engagement to defuse tensions before they escalate into war.
Targeted political interventions to address leadership failures and policy miscalculations.Robust security measures to safeguard regional stability.
Conclusion:
A Warning Backed by Expertise
As one of the most authoritative voices in regional security and geopolitics, General Tsadkan’s analysis is more than just an opinion—it is a warning informed by history, military strategy, and adeep understanding of the power dynamics shaping the region.
The full article is now available on Tigray Herald under the colmun of Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review, the leading platform for critical political, security, and diplomatic insights in the region.
Voice from Tigray on the Political and Security Situation in the Horn of Africa
Written by General Tsadkan Gebretensae
At any moment war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could breakout. It will draw in the whole neighboring region,Sudan and Security of the Red Sea will be directly affected. Central to the conduct and outcome of this conflict will be Tigray, which has a substantial, well trained and experiencedmilitary.
Under normal circumstances Tigray would stay away from such a conflict and promote peace. We have suffered enough. While the option for peace may be narrowing, leaving war as, the only option; all final avenues to avoid conflicts must be perused urgently.
After the Pretoria peace agreement of November 2, 2022, the alliance of the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments has
gradually deteriorated so much so that going to war seems inevitable. Preparations are in their final stages.
The nature of preparations for war are such that after a certain stage of the process, it becomes very hard to hold it back. The
Tigray region is at a critical geopolitical, historical, cultural, and political confluences of the impending war.
My preference is that Tigray opt for peace. It has suffered enough. But in these strange times when leaders choose violence rather than negotiations, the prospect of war being imposed and Tigray becoming a battlefield for Asmara and Addis Ababa is very real.
The Tigray region has a specific political relevance much greater than its physical size. Its geographic, cultural, historical position is critical to what happens in the sub region of the Horn of Africa. Tigray borders Eritrea and the Sudan in its international boundaries. Internally Tigray borders Amhara and Afar regions. This is what makes Tigray
so vital to other people’s war plans.
I have observed the consistent predatory state behavior, of the state of Eritrea ever since its independence. It is based on taking advantage of countries around it, particularly Ethiopia and the Sudan.
From the outset Esayas Afewerki and his followers wanted to give the Eritrean state a character that combines the military invincibility of Israel, emulate the economic success of Singapore, and the social
wellbeing of Denmark at the same time. They wanted to achieve this not based on their own national resources, which could have been fine but at the expense of their neighbors. The policy instrument to
achieve the objective was /is the “mighty Eritrean military” created during the 30 year long armed struggle.
This policy direction brought Esayas and the Eritrean state in direct confrontation with their brothers south of the Mereb River. By the prism of Esayas and his followers the main obstacle to thier dream is Tigray. They tried to eliminate the Tigrian people as happened in the recent Genocidal war (2020-2022) conducted in tandem with the Ethiopian government. Now again the state of Eritrean is ready to go to war to finish what Esayas has said ”Tekolifna” which means we have been frustrated, after the Pretoria
cessation of hostilities agreement.
The transition from “Game over” at the beginning of the Genocidal war and” Tekolifna” after CoHA is a clear manifestation of the intentions of Esayas Afewerki.
Because of this, Tigrayans are once again in an existential crisis. The divisions in Tigrayan politics mean that those Tigrayans who want to protect themselves from accountability for their past and present crimes would rather side with Eritrea, the country which invaded Tigray in 2020. Eritrean behaviour is well documented.
They killed any man who was of an age to serve in the military. They raped our women. They plundered our assets. Their purpose was to turn Tigray into a wasteland. And, still, those in the fragmented TPLF and Military who want to protect their past and current misdeeds would prefer to protect themselves by joining Esayas in alliance. In doing so, they believe that they will use Esayas Afewerki and his regime to topple Abiy Ahmed and then turn on Esayas.
The taste for power with total impunity has not left this group. And their indifference to the fate of the people of Tigray is undiminished. The Eritrean State and the Party know the significance of Tigray (militarily, politically, historically and
demographically as well) and are in a dilemma. Consolidating their National Project cannot be achieved without annihilating their Tigrigna speaking brothers to their South. At the same time they know that without the full support of Tigray, they don’t stand a chance of surviving let alone being victorious in a war against Ethiopia.
The result is that those who massacred our fellow Tigrayans in Axum and Mariam Dengelat, and committed war crimes all over Tigray now seek collaborators among Tigray’s political and military leadership. The Tigrian leaders who are suspected of cooperating are the ones who claim to protect the political status quo which was there for more than 30 years. Leaders scared of accountability and those who want to maintain the status quo and opposed to the
widely accepted political reformare suspected of joining hands with Esayas.
This situation could lead to war against the expressed desire of the people of Tigray. Following a genocidal war conducted jointly by Ethiopian and Eritrean defenses forces and the subsequent Pretoria agreement, the best political position for Tigray is to maintain the precarious peace, demand and work for the full implementation of the Pretoria agreement. This position has been loudly expressed by the people of Tigray both at home and abroad. This is the
position of theTigray Interim Regional Administration as well.
Any war between the two countries has the potential to be protracted, even though both parties will tell you and try to persuade you that it will be short and decisive. Whatever the duration and how it is fought, it could have several devastating outcomes for the region.
When the war ends, the geography of the states as we now recognize them will not be the same. There will be a major political re-alignment in the whole region of the Horn and beyond in the Red Sea arena. This war could be conducted at a time when the attention of the international actors (who matter) is drawn to other parts of the world
(Ukraine, Russia, Middle East and DRC in Africa).The decisive actors to shape the outcome of the war will be rich Middle Eastern countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and Turkey. The main brunt of the war will be felt inTigray, the battle ground where the fate of the war will be decided.
For Tigray the best option is to avert the war and adhere to the full implementation of the Pretoria agreement and work for fast recovery. This would mean a policy of peaceful coexistence with Eritrea and a policy of deterrence to avoid war.
Tigrian interest is best served first by averting and if not possible by shortening the duration of the war, and maintain our survival.
The expressed desire of the people of Tigray and the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray is to uphold the Pretoria agreement and implement it fully. But the Interim Administration was aware that
there will be spoilers within and outside of Tigray. Now it is clear the agreement is in danger.
It is the responsibility of the Ethiopian government and international partners to the peace agreement (sponsors and observers) to step in and avert another disastrous war in our region at the eleven hour.In case the effort to deter war fails, the shortest termination of the war by all means (military or diplomatic) is to the best interest of Tigray and the region. But there is another option where a reformed Tigray co-exists within Ethiopia with a reformed Eritrea on its frontiers. This, surely, is the strategic option that all in Tigray, Ethiopia, Eritrea, the wider region and the international community would welcome.
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General Tsadkan G. Bayru Former liberation fighter and one of the leaders of the armed struggle in Tigray (1976-1991) against the
Dergue regime in the rank of the TPLF and EPRDF. Chief of staff of the Ethiopian Defense Forces (1991-2001). Member of the central command of the resistance war in Tigray (2020-2022). Member of the Tigrian Team in the Pretoria permanent cessation of hostilities (Nov.2022). Vice President of the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray (2023-present).
