Mekelle,Nairobi,Pretoria,London,March 11፡2025 (Tigray Herald)
Tigray at a Crossroads: Trapped Between Internal Strife and External Threats
By Contributor
Amidst Internal Turmoil, Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Tigray, a region scarred by conflict and often reduced to a mere reference as “northern Ethiopia” in an attempt to deny its very existence, finds itself in a dire situation. The Pretoria Agreement, signed in November 2022, remains largely unimplemented, leaving over a million people displaced and in desperate conditions. Now, with the looming possibility of another war between Eritrea and Ethiopia, Tigray is caught in the crossfire.
The region is precariously positioned between Ethiopia and Eritrea, two nations that once collaborated to annex its land and attempt its destruction, now teetering on the brink of war. This looming conflict threatens to engulf Tigray once again, and the region cannot afford to engage, whether independently or in collaboration with Abiy Ahmed. Any involvement would likely lead to further devastation.
Tigray has already endured immense suffering from the genocidal war waged against it, which targeted its history, territorial integrity, and very existence. The region lost a significant portion of its youth, and its infrastructure was systematically destroyed. A second war would be catastrophic.
Additionally, aligning with Abiy Ahmed is not a viable option. His administration has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to sacrifice Tigray for political gain, previously collaborating with Isaias Afwerki, the Eritrean dictator widely accused of committing genocide against the Tigrayan people. Similarly, Tigray cannot trust Isaias, an unrelenting adversary with a history of hostility toward the region.
Even if Tigray refrains from participating in the war, it will not remain unaffected. With a border spanning over 1,033 kilometers, much of the anticipated conflict could take place on Tigrayan soil. Isaias Afwerki is notorious for his indiscriminate bombing campaigns, putting Tigrayan civilians at immense risk.
A sweeping victory by either side will have severe consequences for Tigray. If Ethiopia wins, it may turn its aggression toward the region, given its history of atrocities against the Tigrayan people. Conversely, an Eritrean victory could be just as dangerous, as Eritrea has long sought to weaken Tigray and has actively supported Ethiopia’s campaigns against it. Caught between these two forces, Tigray faces existential threats from both directions.
Escalating Political Tensions in Tigray
Internally, Tigray is grappling with a deepening political crisis. In late January, certain self-proclaimed senior leaders of Tigray’s forces called for the dissolution of the Interim Administration and the reinstatement of Debretsion Gebremichael’s faction as the de facto regime in Tigray.
Recently, Getachew Reda, President of the Tigray Interim Administration, suspended three high-ranking military commanders linked to Debretsion Gebremichael’s faction of the TPLF. This decision, widely seen as an effort to consolidate power over regional security forces, was met with strong resistance. The TPLF office, in a public statement, dismissed Getachew’s authority, referring to him as a “Former President,” while the Tigray Bureau of Peace and Security, under General Fesseha Kidanu, rejected the suspension, arguing that Getachew lacked the jurisdiction to make such a decision. The bureau reaffirmed its commitment to “law enforcement” operations, signaling continued support for Debretsion’s faction.
In response, Getachew’s office warned that General Kidanu would be held accountable for any consequences and accused the security bureau’s leadership of shielding criminal activities. Meanwhile, reports indicate that armed groups loyal to Debretsion have seized control of Adigrat City, escalating the region’s internal power struggle. These developments underscore Tigray’s precarious state of uncertainty, with both external threats and internal divisions deepening the crisis.
Some argue that elements of the TPLF have colluded with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, further exacerbating the region’s instability. However, focusing solely on this claim risks falling into Isaias’ strategic manipulations. Rather than being drawn into external conflicts, Tigray must prioritize resolving its internal divisions and maintaining neutrality wherever possible.
Possible Paths Forward
With the region at a crossroads, several alternative solutions could be considered:
- Declaration of Independence : While risky, independence could provide Tigray with the autonomy needed to protect itself from both Ethiopia and Eritrea. However, such a move would likely provoke fierce opposition, potentially leading to prolonged conflict.
- International Mediation: Engaging international organizations, such as the United Nations, to mediate negotiations and ensure the full implementation of the Pretoria Agreement could offer a diplomatic path forward. However, past attempts at international mediation in African conflicts have often been ineffective.
- Negotiating a New Power-Sharing Agreement: While challenging, renegotiating political arrangements with the Ethiopian government could offer a path to stability. However, given Abiy Ahmed’s past betrayals, this would require substantial guarantees and international oversight.
Beyond these primary options, additional measures could also be explored:
· Restoring Tigray’s Pre-War Status : A negotiated return to pre-war conditions could allow displaced populations to return and ensure the Pretoria Agreement is honored.
· Establishing a Demilitarized Zone : A neutral buffer zone between Tigray and Eritrea could reduce hostilities and prevent further conflict.
· Launching a Truth and Reconciliation Process : Investigating human rights abuses and fostering reconciliation could help heal divisions and build trust among different communities.
· Implementing a Long-Term Development Plan : Economic recovery programs could support Tigray’s reconstruction and lay the foundation for a more stable future.
The Role of the International Community
The global community must not turn a blind eye to Tigray’s plight. The failure of the Pretoria Agreement to bring lasting peace, coupled with ongoing displacement and humanitarian crises, requires urgent intervention. As Ethiopia and Eritrea prepare for another war, the stakes for Tigray are higher than ever. If Abiy Ahmed emerges victorious, retaliation against Tigray is almost certain. If Isaias Afwerki prevails, his long-standing animosity toward Tigray could lead to further aggression and atrocities.
The international community must take decisive action by:
· Pressuring Abiy and Isaias to cease hostilities and respect the territorial integrity of the region, ensure the return of displaced people.
· Supporting Tigray’s right to self-determination.
· Ensuring that all war crimes committed against the Tigrayan people are investigated and prosecuted.
Conclusion
Tigray is at a pivotal moment in its history. The region cannot afford to remain in its current vulnerable position. The people of Tigray have endured immense suffering and deserve a future where they can live in peace and security. The international community must step up to prevent another catastrophe and help Tigray secure a sustainable, just resolution to its ongoing crisis.
