Mekelle፡Teklaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London,March 14፡2025 (Tigray Herald)
Strategic Policy Document
The Emergence of a Fifth Wave of Terrorism in the Tigray Context:
The Rise of Terrorist
Semi-States (TSS) from the Failed Debretsion Gebremichael-led TPLF Splinter Group and Its
Impact on Post-Genocide Tigray Political Transformation
Executive Summary
This strategic policy document provides a critical analysis of the rising political and security
threat posed by the Debretsion Gebremichael-led TPLF splinter group, which has transformed
into a Terrorist Semi-State (TSS) following its defeat in the Tigray war.
This group now operates
as an armed insurgency, engaging in territorial control, political assassinations, sabotage of the
Pretoria Peace Agreement, and illegal gold mining operations to finance its activities.
By leveraging David Rapoport’s “Four Waves of Terrorism” thesis, this analysis identifies the
TPLF’s evolution into a Fifth Wave of Terrorism, distinct from previous waves driven by
anarchist, anti-colonial, leftist, and religious motivations.
The Fifth Wave is defined by
ethno-political insurgency, criminal economic activities, and territorial ambitions, all aimed at
destabilizing the Tigray Interim Government (TIG) and obstructing Tigray’s post-genocide
political transformation.
I. Introduction: The Concept of a Fifth Wave of Terrorism
David Rapoport’s Four Waves of Terrorism thesis categorizes terrorism into four historical
phases:
The Anarchist Wave (1880s–1920s)
The Anti-Colonial Wave (1920s–1960s)
The New Left Wave (1960s–1990s)
The Religious Wave (1979–present)
This document introduces the Fifth Wave of Terrorism, characterized by the rise of Terrorist
Semi-States (TSS), where defeated political and military groups resort to insurgency warfare
and criminal economic activities to destabilize legitimate governments and regain lost political
power.
II. Defining Terrorist Semi-States (TSS) in the Tigray Context
A Terrorist Semi-State (TSS) refers to a political-military faction that rejects peaceful political
transition, engages in armed insurgency, and establishes control over strategic territories while
financing its operations through criminal activities.
Key Indicators of TPLF’s Transformation into a TSS:
Criteria for TSS TPLF Splinter Group Actions
Territorial control Armed TPLF militias control parts of rural Tigray and illegal mining zones.
Political assassinationTargeted killings of Tigray Interim Government officials and security
personnel.
Sabotage and insurgency Destabilization of the Pretoria Peace Agreement and collaboration
with Eritrean proxy forces.
Illegal resource smuggling Exploitation of Tigray’s gold and mineral wealth to finance armed
operations.
III. The TPLF’s Ideological Evolution and the Fifth Wave of Terrorism
The failed Debretsion Gebremichael-led TPLF splinter group has transitioned from a
Marxist-Leninist political party to an extremist ethno-nationalist terrorist semi-state, driven by
political survival and territorial ambitions.
Core Ideological Drivers:
Ethno-nationalist extremism rooted in TPLF’s historical victimhood narrative.
Revolutionary violence as a tool to regain political dominance.
Economic exploitation of Tigray’s resources to finance insurgency operations.
Collaboration with external actors (Eritrean intelligence networks) to destabilize Tigray’s political
transition.
IV. Strategic Threat to Tigray’s Political Transformation and Post-Genocide Recovery
The TPLF splinter group’s actions pose a direct threat to Tigray’s political stability and economic
recovery, including:
Undermining the Tigray Interim Government’s (TIG) authority.
Sabotaging the Pretoria Peace Agreement.
Blocking efforts for democratic institution-building and reconciliation.
Fueling resource-driven conflicts and illegal gold smuggling networks.
Creating internal instability through political assassination and militia operations.
V. International Implications: A New Model of African Insurgency
The rise of the TPLF as a terrorist semi-state is part of a broader Fifth Wave of Terrorism
emerging across Africa, including:
Al-Shabaab in Somalia.
RSF-backed militias in Sudan.
Houthi rebels in Yemen.
This new wave threatens regional security and international efforts to stabilize the Horn of
Africa.
VI. Strategic Policy Recommendations for the Tigray Interim Government (TIG) and Regional
Partners
- Establish an Independent Counter-Terrorism Commission (ICTC):
Led by trusted Tigray intellectuals, security experts, and legal advisors.
Investigate TPLF’s illegal gold mining operations and terrorist financing networks.
Expose TPLF’s collaboration with Eritrean intelligence and external actors.
- Launch an Intelligence-Led Operation to Neutralize TPLF Militias:
Target key TPLF commanders, including General Tadesse Worede and General Fisseha
Kidanu, involved in illegal mining and political sabotage.
Strengthen collaboration with U.S., EU, and African intelligence agencies to cut off TPLF’s
financial channels.
- Counter TPLF’s Propaganda and Psychological Warfare:
Launch a strategic media campaign to expose TPLF’s crimes and corruption.
Mobilize Tigray’s youth and diaspora to reject TPLF’s destructive ideology.
- Leverage Tigray’s Mineral Wealth for Diplomatic Negotiations:
Use Tigray’s gold and natural resources to build alliances with the U.S., EU, and Gulf nations.
Prevent Chinese-backed illegal mining operations and counter foreign interference.
VII. Conclusion: The Need for a New Political Era in Tigray
The Fifth Wave of Terrorism, embodied by the TPLF splinter group, poses a direct existential
threat to Tigray’s political transformation and post-genocide recovery.
Strategic Goals for Tigray’s Future:
Complete disarmament and elimination of TPLF terrorist cells.
Establishment of a new political party that reflects Tigray’s true national interests.
Regional and international collaboration to isolate and dismantle TPLF’s terrorist networks.
Prepared by:
Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review (HAGR)
Leading Regional and International Political, Security, and Intelligence Platform
✅ Professionally revised for international policymakers, diplomats, and intelligence experts.
✅ Ready for official publication and global diplomatic enPlatform
.
