Mekelle፡Telaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London, (Tigray Herald)
“The War to End All Wars: Ethiopia’s Strategic Response to the Isaias Afwerki Regime’s 64-Year Belligerence”
A Grand Strategic and Military Assessment of Deterrence, Decisive Action, and Geopolitical
Stabilization
Prepared by Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review (HAGR) | With Contributions from Leading Regional and International Security Experts
Executive Summary
For more than six decades, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has cultivated a political and
military machine dedicated to sabotaging Ethiopian stability, exploiting internal divisions, and obstructing regional integration in the Horn of Africa. His regime, masquerading under nationalist liberation, has consistently operated as a foreign subversive proxy, perpetuating hybrid threats—rebellions, assassinations, disinformation, and transnational militia warfare—against the Ethiopian state.
Today, Ethiopia faces a strategic inflection point. A final military-diplomatic doctrine must be conceptualized: a “War to End All Wars” response. This doctrine would be the culmination of Ethiopia’s historical patience and restraint—a decisive, defensive, and forward-looking national security doctrine that neutralizes the Eritrean regime once and for all, not only as an act of survival but as a regional moral imperative.
This document explores in detail the strategic rationale, defense doctrine, and scenario planning behind such a policy option—presenting it as both a possibility and a strong potentiality. The goal is to end cyclical destabilization and bring regional peace, security, and integration to the Horn of Africa and Red Sea corridors.
- Historical Context: The 64-Year Belligerent Legacy of Isaias Afwerki
1.1 The Genesis of Destabilization: From ELF to EPLF
From the 1960s to the 1990s, the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) and Eritrean People’s
Liberation Front (EPLF) were strategically positioned not merely for national liberation but as instruments of regional chaos Isaias Afwerki, the central figure in EPLF’s consolidation, systematically dismantled rival
Eritrean factions and built a para-militarized intelligence state rooted in sabotage, infiltration, and armed proxy deployment.
1.2 Post-Independence Eritrea: A State of Permanent War
Since 1991, Eritrea has never known peace. Internally, it’s a prison state. Regionally, it has been in conflict with Sudan, Djibouti, Yemen, Ethiopia, and now plays a subversive role in Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara.
The Eritrean regime has sponsored nearly every rebel group that fought Ethiopian governments: OLF, ONLF, TPLF factions, and most recently, anti-federalist Amhara militias and rogue TDF
generals.
- Eritrea as a Hybrid Threat Proxy State
2.1 Hybrid Warfare Tactics of the Eritrean Regime
Militia Mobilization: Direct support to TPLF splinter factions and Amhara extremists.
Political Assassinations: Targeting Ethiopian federal and regional leaders to induce instability.
Disinformation Campaigns: Digital warfare and psychological operations to delegitimize the Ethiopian state.
Border Provocations: Unilateral military activities to provoke full-scale war.
2.2 Foreign Agency Role
The Isaias regime acts as a strategic subcontractor for anti-Ethiopian foreign agendas, especially those invested in Red Sea militarization and anti-China, anti-African sovereignty strategies.
- The Grand Strategic Doctrine: “The War to End All Wars
3.1 Why Now?
Eritrea’s latest provocation, including its collaboration with anti-state actors and destabilizing efforts in Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara, have crossed Ethiopia’s final red line. The Ethiopian Federal Government now faces an existential choice: either absorb the cost of
endless destabilization, or implement a decisive strategic endgame.
3.2 Strategic Objective
End Isaias Afwerki’s regime as a geopolitical threat. Neutralize Eritrea’s militarized intelligence infrastructure. Stabilize the northern corridor (Tigray-Afar-Eritrea-Sudan). Reintegrate Eritrea into a peaceful regional system under new, democratic leadership.
- Scenario Planning: Strategic Military and Diplomatic Paths
Scenario A: Multi-Theater Deterrence and Containment (Limited War)
Objective: Cripple Eritrea’s military bases near the border while avoiding full occupation.
Tools: Drone strikes, air superiority enforcement, intelligence disruption, border special operations.
Risk: Protracted retaliation and refugee flows.
Scenario B: Full-Scale Regime Change and Transitional Stabilization (Total War)
Objective: Overthrow Isaias, establish transitional administration, backed by AU, IGAD, and UN.
Tools: Coordinated Ethiopia-Tigray alliance; invite democratic Eritrean opposition groups;
surgical strikes on Asmara command centers.
Result: Strategic peace dividend for the Red Sea corridorScenario C: Proxy War Plus Diplomatic Encirclement
Objective: Isolate Eritrea regionally and internationally, support democratic opposition.
Tools: Empower Eritrean youth, support Blue Revolution, leverage UAE-Israel-Egypt influence.
Drawback: Longer time horizon; regime may survive and retaliate.
- Strategic Military Recommendations
5.1 Unified Command Structure
Ethiopia must integrate the Northern Command, Tigray Interim Government forces, and national intelligence units under a singular military doctrine—backed by constitutional mandate and regional support.
5.2 Civilian Protection & Lawfare
Prevent civilian casualties, mass displacement, and ensure international legal compliance. Establish a transitional plan for Eritrea post-Isaias.
5.3 Military Tools
Precision-guided munitions, cyber warfare capabilities, space-based surveillance, and Red Sea
naval blockade must be considered.
- Diplomatic Considerations and Messaging
6.1 International Narrativ
Frame Isaias as the last fascist warlord of Africa. Use the language of human rights,
anti-genocide, and regional peace.
Emphasize collateral suffering of Eritrean people under the current regime.
6.2 Regional Diplomacy
Bring Sudan, Djibouti, Kenya, and South Sudan to the table.
Secure UAE and Egypt’s neutrality or silent consent. Leverage African Union’s Peace and Security Council for legitimization.
6.3 Global Engagement
Coordinate with UNSC P5 members, particularly the U.S., UK, France, and China.
Emphasize Red Sea security and maritime trade vulnerability under continued Eritrean
instability.
- Post-Isaias Strategic Vision: The Horn Reimagined
A federal, democratic Eritrea integrated into the African Union, IGAD, and EAC.
Joint Ethiopia-Eritrea infrastructure development, including shared ports and customs unions. Permanent security and economic integration of the Horn and Red Sea regions. End of militia-era politics and rise of technocratic leadership across Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Conclusion: Ending the Cycle of Destruction
The time has come for Ethiopia to consider the strategic necessity of finality in its defensive posture. The end of Isaias Afwerki’s regime is not only a national imperative—it is a regiona salvation. The war to end all wars must not be viewed with romanticism, but with strategic precision, diplomatic courage, and historical clarity.
Prepared by:
Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review (HAGR)
With Contributions From:
Prepared by: Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review (HAGR)
With Contributions From:
- Senior Military Strategists
- Horn of Africa Security Scholars
- International Human Rights Law Experts
- Regional Diplomacy Think Tanks,
South Africa, Israel), UK
Horn of Africa Security Scholars
International Human Rights Law Experts
Regional Diplomacy Think Tanks
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