Mekelle፡Telaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London, (Tigray Herald)
British Archives Expose Egypt’s Complacency and Mismanagement of Nile Waters
Via፡The Asrat blog
Did you know that British government archives from the late 1980s clearly foresaw Egypt’s current water issues? Recently uncovered British documents shed critical light on Egypt’s persistent water woes, revealing that Egypt’s claims of water scarcity today stem significantly from decades of complacency, poor management, and wasteful use of its abundant Nile resources not from genuine shortages alone.
Egypt’s False Sense of Water Security
Following the abundant Nile flood of 1987, Egyptian officials prematurely celebrated a supposed victory over water scarcity. Astonishingly, British archives reveal Egypt immediately abandoned serious water conservation efforts after just a single good flood year. British expert Terry Evans explicitly warned Egyptian officials in an April 1989 meeting that even occasional favorable floods would never sustainably resolve Egypt’s looming water crisis, especially given rapid population growth. Yet Egypt chose complacency, mistakenly convinced that its water troubles were permanently solved—a dangerously short-sighted decision with its consequences.
Egypt’s Dangerous Path Toward Food Dependency
British experts explicitly warned in 1989 that unless Egypt drastically improved its water management strategies, it “could not avoid an increasing dependence on imported food.” Today, Egypt is among the world’s largest wheat importers—exactly as predicted. Yet, rather than responsibly managing water, Egypt continues diverting massive volumes to questionable and unsustainable desert projects:
• Jirian (Geryan) City diverts about 10 million m³/day (~3.65 BCM/year), roughly 7% of Egypt’s self-claimed annual Nile allotment.
• The ambitious but water-intensive “New Delta” project plans to use 3.5 BCM/year for agriculture by 2027.
• The infamous Toshka Project initially allocated 5 BCM/year, with substantial losses due to desert evaporation.
• Luxurious golf courses and resorts consume between 0.6–1.0 BCM annually, about 2% of Egypt’s self-claimed Nile share.
• The extravagant “Green River” in the New Administrative Capital, a 35 km artificial river, further underscores Egypt’s misplaced priorities, drawing widespread criticism over sustainability.British archival warnings now seem prophetic. Egypt’s stubborn refusal to responsibly manage its resources has turned what could have been a manageable situation into a national security crisis of its own making.
Ethiopia’s Realistic and Responsible Water Plans
Despite Egypt’s attempts to portray Ethiopia as reckless, British experts privately described Ethiopia’s Nile projects as realistic and technically sound. Historical British assessments explicitly stated Ethiopia’s developments in the 1980s posed minimal downstream risks to Egypt or Sudan. British hydrologist Terry Evans notably described Ethiopian officials as “too clever to be deceived,” explicitly refuting Egyptian claims of Ethiopian incompetence or irresponsibility. Far from reckless, Ethiopia’s approach was balanced and strategic, directly countering Egypt’s exaggerated narratives.
Egypt’s Refusal to Modernize Water Allocation
British archives sharply criticized Egypt’s resistance to modernizing its water management. Despite clear international advice, Egypt’s Ministry of Irrigation remained deeply conservative, stubbornly allocating water “the way it always had, without much reference to anyone else,” according to British irrigation advisor Hugh Morrison. Morrison, who spent two years on Egyptian irrigation projects, highlighted Egypt’s poor internal coordination between the Ministries of Irrigation and Agriculture, directly undermining conservation efforts. These stubbornly outdated practices directly endangered Egypt’s long-term water security and regional stability.
Egypt’s Dangerous Mismanagement During Droughts
Perhaps most troubling in the archives is Egypt’s chronic mismanagement during drought conditions. British experts explicitly criticized Egypt’s inadequate strategies for managing severe droughts throughout the 1980s. Despite clear warnings, Egyptian officials consistently failed to implement meaningful drought-preparedness measures, unnecessarily risking millions of Egyptians. Even the Aswan High Dam, previously seen as Egypt’s safeguard, was acknowledged by British experts as insufficient to protect Egypt from prolonged drought unless accompanied by forward-looking policies and genuine water efficiency measures.
British Advice Ignored: Inclusive Basin-Wide Cooperation
The British archives reveal explicit diplomatic advice that Egypt ignored at its own peril: the necessity of genuinely inclusive regional cooperation involving all Nile Basin countries, especially Ethiopia. In February 1988, Egypt joined Sudan, Uganda, and Zaire in forming an international committee on drought and Nile waters a move British diplomats labeled a “very small step,” explicitly criticizing Egypt for excluding key upstream states like Ethiopia, which contributes around 85% of the Nile flow. British diplomats clearly stated that without genuinely inclusive regional cooperation, Egypt’s diplomatic efforts were doomed to fail. Today, Egypt’s diplomatic isolation validates Britain’s explicit warnings.
The Road Egypt Didn’t Take: Long-Term Efficiency and Innovation
British archives repeatedly emphasized that Egypt needed long-term efficiency measures rather than quick-fix engineering solutions. British experts explicitly criticized Egypt’s investments in marginally effective measures such as canal-lining, noting that such projects “would not save an enormous amount of water,” as most seeped water returned via groundwater flow. The archives urged Egypt toward genuinely effective water-saving measures, including improved irrigation technologies, agricultural efficiency, and water recycling programs recommendations that Egypt consistently ignored in favor of short-term, wasteful projects.
British Forecasts Becoming Reality
British experts explicitly forecasted that Egypt would face chronic water shortages throughout the 21st century, directly tied to its diplomatic failure and internal inefficiencies. They clearly predicted the improbability of a comprehensive Nile basin agreement by the end of the 20th century, given deep political divisions. Furthermore, the archives warned explicitly of a “definite possibility that below-average floods will continue indefinitely,” compelling Egypt to cope permanently with reduced water supplies. Today’s situation perfectly mirrors these insightful British forecasts.
Conclusion:
Lessons from History for Ethiopia and the Region
These British archival documents vividly illustrate that Egypt’s claims of water scarcity today are deeply rooted in longstanding mismanagement, wasteful diversions, and diplomatic stubbornness not genuine water shortages. Ethiopia’s responsible, strategic approach is clearly justified by impartial historical evidence, directly countering exaggerated Egyptian narratives.
For Egypt, resolving the current crisis begins by acknowledging decades of ignored advice: ending wasteful desert projects, modernizing water management, genuinely engaging upstream countries like Ethiopia in inclusive diplomacy, and recognizing upstream nations’ legitimate rights. Only then can Egyptand the entire Nile Basin secure a sustainable water future.
