Mekelle፡Telaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London, (Tigray Herald)
ጽምዶ Eritrea’s Shifting Alliances: Are We in the Driver’s Seat or Headed for Another Disaster?
By Selam Kidane(Phd)
In the fog of war and geopolitics, it’s easy to lose track of who’s fighting whom, and why. For Eritreans, the past few years have been particularly disorienting. When the Eritrean government joined forces with Ethiopia’s federal government to wage a devastating war against Tigray, many Eritreans justified it some with conviction, others out of resignation, fear, or manipulated nationalism. We were told it was necessary. Existential. Patriotic.
Now, with the war concluded through the Pretoria peace agreement that notably excluded Eritrea despite its heavy involvement the winds have shifted yet again. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister and his allies have turned their gaze toward the Red Sea, openly suggesting that Ethiopia’s landlocked status must be “reversed.” The implication is clear, and it hasn’t gone unnoticed in Asmara.
Suddenly, the Eritrean regime seems to be courting its former enemy, the Tigrayans (TPLF) the very people it vilified and brutalised during the war. And, just as suddenly, many Eritreans are applauding this dramatic U-turn. The applause is loud. It’s also deeply unsettling.
The Ghost of Alliances Past
Is this a strategic masterstroke, as some Eritreans seem to believe? Has Eritrea manoeuvred itself into the driver’s seat of regional politics — now able to play Tigray against Addis Ababa and reassert itself as a power broker of the Horn of Africa?
That’s one interpretation.
But a more sobering one is this: if there is anything to drive, it is the soulless ghost of Eritrea behind the wheel and we may be hurtling toward another disaster.
The pattern is depressingly familiar. Our government doesn’t pivot it careens. From one war to the next. From one enemy to another ally. From nationalist fervour to strategic confusion. And through it all, ordinary Eritreans are expected to clap. First for the war, then for the peace, then for the reversal. No space for questions. No accountability. Just applause.
A Marriage of Convenience, or a Pact with Consequences?
The sudden alignment with Tigray is not rooted in reconciliation, truth, or justice. It is a marriage of convenience built on mutual grievances against Ethiopia’s central government, not shared values or vision.
For some Tigrayan actors, the alignment may appear pragmatic. They were excluded from Ethiopia’s peace dividend. They still bear scars literal and metaphorical from a war that devastated their region.
But let’s not fool ourselves. These are not the foundations of peace. They are the embers of another war, waiting for oxygen.
And there’s something even more disquieting: Eritrea stands credibly accused of war crimes and even genocide in Tigray. UN bodies and multiple human rights organisations have documented systematic massacres, sexual violence, and scorched-earth tactics perpetrated by Eritrean troops. That some Tigrayan elites now entertain an alliance with the very regime accused of these atrocities raises disturbing questions about desperation, disillusionment, and the erosion of principle in the face of power politics.
If such an alliance proceeds without truth, justice, or even acknowledgement of past horrors, it will not bring healing. It will deepen cynicism and compound trauma for both peoples.
The Illusion of Control
To those Eritreans who believe this puts Eritrea “in control” it’s worth asking: control of what?
A wrecked economy?
A generation in indefinite national service?
A population scattered across the globe?
A nation so traumatised and silenced that applause has replaced debate?
Control, without direction, is not leadership. It’s recklessness.
And what is Eritrea steering toward? If the past is any indication, it’s not toward democracy, justice, or development. It’s toward another cycle of conflict, isolation, and grief.
A Call for Reflection
It’s time we, as Eritreans, start asking harder questions not just about foreign policy, but about our internal reality. Who decides our enemies? Who speaks for us? Who benefits from these alliances, and who pays the price?
The cheers that greet each policy reversal are not signs of strength. They are symptoms of a nation conditioned to repeat the party line, fearing independent thought more than inconsistency.
If Eritrea is in the driver’s seat, then we need to ask: who’s navigating, and where are we going? Because the scenery looks hauntingly familiar and so does the cliff.
Selam kidane is Eritrean writer, academic, psychotherapist, human rights advocate,Reside in London.
