Mekelle፡Telaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London, (Tigray Herald)
Ethiopia Must Reject Eritrea’s Flawed Referendum And Reclaim Its People’s Future
By Habtamu Gurmu
In 1993, the world applauded as Eritrea declared independence from Ethiopia in what appeared to be a peaceful, democratic referendum. But for many Ethiopians and Eritreans alike, the truth is far more complex and painful. That vote, far from being a model of self-determination, was an elite-driven process that excluded entire ethnic groups and cemented colonial-era borders without real consent from those who live along them.
Today, as Ethiopia repositions itself as a rising regional power with renewed economic ambition and maritime aspirations, it is time to confront this uncomfortable legacy. Ethiopia must reject the legitimacy of the 1993 Eritrean referendum and advocate for a new, inclusive vote one that reflects the will of all the region’s people, not just a select few.
The Silent Enablers: TPLF’s Role in the Flawed Eritrean Referendum
While the international community cheered the 1993 Eritrean referendum as a peaceful transition, few scrutinized the silent dealmakers behind the scenes—chief among them, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), then the dominant power within Ethiopia’s ruling coalition.
At the time, the TPLF-led EPRDF (Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front) had just assumed power after overthrowing the Derg regime. The TPLF and EPLF (later PFDJ) were wartime allies—both Marxist-Leninist movements that fought common enemies in the name of “liberation.” That shared struggle laid the groundwork for a dangerously uncritical alliance between the two groups, one that sacrificed Ethiopia’s long-term sovereignty for short-term ideological unity.
In practice, the TPLF accepted if not outright encouraged Eritrea’s bid for independence. But this was no act of democratic benevolence.
In effect, the TPLF’s actions amounted to the abdication of sovereignty ceding Ethiopia’s coast and abandoning millions of Ethiopian-identifying communities in Eritrea, with no plan for reintegration or future diplomacy.
A Vote Without a Voice
The 1993 referendum was largely orchestrated by the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF), which later became the PFDJ regime of Isaias Afwerki. It was celebrated internationally but internally exclusionary. Many of Eritrea’s non-Tigrinya speaking communities such as the Kunama, Afar, and Saho were sidelined or intimidated into silence.
These communities have long histories of cultural and economic integration with Ethiopia. They were never truly given a choice about their future. The referendum was less a democratic milestone than a political declaration engineered by a victorious elite determined to consolidate power. As a result, many Eritreans today live under a repressive state that claims to speak for them without ever having asked them.
Colonial Borders, Contemporary Injustice
The internationally recognized borders of Eritrea were never drawn by its people. They were inherited from colonial powersItaly and later Britain who carved the Red Sea coast from Ethiopia’s historical territory. These boundaries split ethnic groups, disrupted trade, and robbed Ethiopia of its natural access to the sea.
Assab, in particular, is more than a port; it is a symbol of what was unjustly taken and what must be responsibly restored. Ethiopia’s claim to Assab is not merely about national pride or economic need it is also about correcting an imbalance created not by law, but by force and diplomacy devoid of justice.
The Real Issue: Reclaiming Our People
This is not just a territorial dispute. Ethiopia’s concern must be centered around people—those who have suffered under Eritrea’s authoritarian rule for decades without representation or recourse. In cities like Assab, Dankalia, and Barentu, generations of Afar, Kunama, and others have lived without meaningful political rights or cultural freedoms.
These are not simply Eritreans by passport. Many identify with Ethiopia by heritage, language, or kinship. The question must no longer be “who owns the land,” but rather: “Who speaks for the people?” The answer, tragically, is no one.
A new referendum, facilitated by international observers and rooted in ethnic self-determination not colonial geography could offer a pathway to peace and dignity. It must include all nine ethnic groups in Eritrea and provide options beyond a binary yes/no. Autonomy, federal integration, or even reunification must all be on the table.
Ethiopia’s Strategic Horizon
Ethiopia is reemerging as a power in the Horn of Africa, not just economically, but diplomatically and militarily. It has rebuilt its relationships in the Gulf, revived plans for a national navy, and begun articulating a clear vision for Red Sea access. But these ambitions must be grounded in justice not simply strategy.
To secure peace in the long term, Ethiopia must advocate for a process that heals wounds, rights historical wrongs, and gives voice to the voiceless. Reclaiming Assab is not about revenge it’s about reintegration, both territorial and human.
Ethiopia’s Full Ownership Of Red Sea: Suggestion to Ethiopian Government a strategy that makes Eritrea landlocked
If the Saho, Afar, and Rashaida ethnic groups seceded from Eritrea to join Ethiopia, Ethiopia would gain control of Eritrea’s 1,151 km Red Sea coastline, including ports like Massawa and Assab, restoring its maritime access. Eritrea would become landlocked, losing its trade routes and economic stability, while Ethiopia would emerge as a strategic Red Sea power. This scenario, though feasible given ethnic ties, would require complex negotiations and international approval, making it a challenging prospect.
Eritrea’s strategic location along the Red Sea, with a coastline of approximately 1,151 km, is a critical geopolitical asset. The country is home to nine ethnic groups, three of which Saho, Afar, and Rashaida predominantly inhabit the coastal and southeastern regions that provide access to the sea.
The Saho are concentrated in the eastern escarpments and coastal areas (e.g., around Massawa), the Afar in the southeast (e.g., near Assab and the Danakil Depression), and the Rashaida along the northern coast. If these groups were to secede from Eritrea and join Ethiopia, it would significantly alter the regional dynamics, particularly regarding control of the Red Sea and Eritrea’s territorial status.
This is one of the main reasons why Isaias Afwerki criticizes Ethiopian constitution and demonize it. If all the 9 ethnicities in Eritrea were empowered and have self autonomous powers, these three minorities ethnicities group, Saho, Afar, and Rashaida, would have been more powerful and prosperous. For Isaias Afwerki, ethnic politics is a nightmare.
Ethiopian government must play using Isaias Afwerki’s nightmare card to secure not only port of Assab but also make Eritrea landlocked.
The suffering must end. The silence must be broken. And the story of the Horn must finally be told in full.
History is shifting. Ethiopia must lead the way this time, with justice at its core.
About the author:
“Habtamu Gurmu is a writer and political analyst specializing in the Horn of Africa. He focuses on conflict, diplomacy, and historical justice.”
