Mekelle፡Telaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London, (Tigray Herald)
Reading Between the Lines: Ato Zerihun Teshome’s Strategic Foresighting on Eritrea’s Final Gamble-The Beginning of the End for Isaias Afwerki
Prepared by:
Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review
In collaboration with the Tigray Herald Editorial Board With contributions from leading regional and international political, security, and diplomatic
experts
Executive Summary
This strategic briefing offers a timely and incisive interpretation of Ato Zerihun Teshome’s widelyvcirculated interview, which has emerged as a critical foresighting commentary on Eritrea’s terminal political trajectory. Ato Zerihun a renowned scholar in political strategy, the history of philosophy, and global studies and author of the landmark volume Kurkora (ኩርኮራ: YeErtravGuday, YeLhiku Mina, Yemannenet Politika BeZemenawit Ethiopia), presents a compelling analysis of the regime of Isaias Afwerki and its implications for regional stability.
Zerihun’s insights are more than academic reflection. They serve as a strategic call to action,outlining the geopolitical risks of inaction and the urgent need for regional and international recalibration. With the Eritrean regime entering what he identifies as its final phase, the Horn of Africa faces a critical inflection point.
This brief urges policymakers, security institutions, regional stakeholders, and the international community to absorb and act on Zerihun’s analysis without delay. The region stands at a crossroads: toward irreversible collapse or toward collective transformation and stability.
I. A Voice of Strategic Clarity Amid Regional Deception
Zerihun Teshome emerges as a voice of rare clarity in a region clouded by misinformation and manipulation. In his interview, he does not offer speculation he presents foresight. His framework reveals the true nature of Isaias Afwerki’s regime: not one guided by strategic calculation, but by desperation and destabilization.
“Isaias is no longer a regional strategist- he is a saboteur of peace, driven by desperation,
not doctrine.” Zerihun Teshom
II. Strategic Themes and Critical Insights
- The Terminal Phase of the Eritrean Regime
Zerihun asserts that Eritrea’s authoritarian regime has entered its final stage. Regionally isolated and internationally marginalized, Isaias now leans on outdated tools ethnic incitement, proxy wars, and information warfare. But the current regional dynamics no longer favor survival through sabotage.
“This is not a resilient autocrat this is a fading tyrant banking on chaos for survival.”
Zerihun Teshome
.
- Ethiopia’s Red Sea Imperative: An Existential Right
Zerihun reframes the national discourse on port access as a question of survival rather than aspiration. Denial of Ethiopia’s rightful and lawful access to the Red Sea is not only unjustified, he argues it is regionally destabilizing.
“Access to the Red Sea is not a threat it is a legal and geopolitical right. Ethiopia cannot be caged inland indefinitely.”
Zerihun Teshome
- Ethnic Weaponization : Expanding the Target from Tigray to Oromo
Eritrea’s regime, according to Zerihun, is expanding its psychological and propaganda warfare
from Tigrayans to Oromos. This shift signals a dangerous deepening of Eritrea’s destabilization
agenda aimed at fracturing Ethiopia from within.
“From Mekelle to Addis Isaias repeats his playbook: divide, destabilize, and disguise it as diplomacy.” Zerihun Teshome
III. May 24, 2025: Deconstructing Eritrea’s 34th Independence Day
Zerihun deciphers the recent Independence Day speech in Asmara as a coded declaration of hostility, not celebration. The symbols, tone, and omissions offer insight into a regime preparing for confrontation not national renewal.
Strategic Red Flags Identified:
Targeted vilification of Oromo civic and political actors Renewed logistical and ideological support for armed insurgents in Ethiopi Tactical military posturing near the Ethiopian-Eritrean border Rejection of regional integration and economic cooperation frameworks “Independence Day in Eritrea has become Isolation Day a celebration of defiance, not development.” Zerihun Teshome
IV. Scenario Forecasting: Three Possible Futures
Zerihun outlines three geopolitical trajectories based on the current trends:
Scenario 1: Open Conflict Triggered by Miscalculation
Isaias oversteps Ethiopia’s threshold for provocation. Ethiopia responds militarily. While a rapid confrontation may dismantle the regime in Asmara, the collateral risk of broader regional destabilization remains high.
Scenario 2: Coordinated Diplomatic Containment
Regional bodies (AU, IGAD) and global actors impose sanctions and initiate political isolation. Internal dissent in Eritrea grows. A peaceful democratic transition becomes plausible.
Scenario 3: Regional Fragmentation via Strategic Sabotage
Eritrean interference in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia intensifies. Cross-border conflict
escalates. The absence of early international intervention results in widespread regional
destabilization.
V. Strategic Alert: Prepare for a Decisive Confrontation
The most sobering insight in Zerihun’s analysis is unequivocal: should conflict erupt, it must not be approached as a tactical dispute. Ethiopia must prepare for a strategic confrontation designed to decisively eliminate recurring threats.
“If a final confrontation is forced, it must be strategic, swift, and historic a war to end all
future wars imposed by tyranny.”
Zerihun Teshome
VI. Policy Recommendation: Watch, Analyze, and Respond
This interview is more than a broadcast it is a strategic warning document. We recommend
urgent engagement by the following stakeholders፡
Ethiopian Federal Government & National Defense Forces
Tigray Interim Regional Administration
Tigrayan global civic organizations
Oromo Political & Civic Institutions
African Union and IGAD Security Architecture
U.S. State Department and European Union External Action Service
Eritrean Democracy Advocates and Global Diaspora Networks
“Zerihun’s analysis is a map in the fog a rare glimpse of clarity in a time of geopolitical
confusion.”
VII. Institutional Endorsement: A Call for Strategic Attention
We, the Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review and Tigray Herald Editorial Board, endorse this interview as a strategically essential document. We urge all Ethiopian policymakers, intellectuals, civic organizations, international think tanks, and diplomatic observers to engage with Zerihun’s message.His foresighting offers not only analysis but direction a compass for those committed to peace, sovereignty, and regional justice.
VIII. Final Reflection: History Demands Action
Tyranny endures in silence. Zerihun’s voice breaks that silence and compels a response. As Ethiopia and the Horn face a decade of reckoning, the cost of ignoring strategic foresight could be catastrophic.
“History is written by foresight, not hindsight. Let this be the moment Ethiopia chooses truth,preparation, and justice over denial, delay, and disaster.”
Editorial Conclusion
For Strategic Circulation
This policy brief is intended for:
Official publication in Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review and Tigray Heral Confidential circulation among diplomatic missions, national security agencies, multilateral institutions, policy research centers, and international academic networks
