Mekelle፡Telaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London, (Tigray Herald).
The Panic Behind the Press Release: TPLF’s Unholy Alliance with Eritrea Backfires as PM Abiy Sends a Chilling Warning
A Deep Political Insight by Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review & Tigray Herald Editorial Board
Executive Summary:
In a rare and revealing political moment, the TPLF long known for its arrogance, defiance, and contemptuous tone toward federal authorities issued an unusually respectful and visibly panicked press release in response to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s stern address to the Ethiopian Parliament. The Prime Minister’s speech was not a casual remark; it was a strategic warning an encoded message asserting state authority and signaling the limits of tolerancetoward renewed TPLF provocation and its controversial alliance with the Eritrean regime.The press release, framed in unusually diplomatic language and referring to Abiy as“Honourable Prime Minister,” stands in sharp contrast to the TPLF’s historical discourse. This shift is not coincidental. It reveals a moment of reckoning within the TPLF leadership a realization that their recent miscalculated moves, especially the clandestine reactivation of their unholy ጽምዶ alliance with the PFDJ regime of Isaias Afwerki, have placed them on a collision course with a more assertive federal response.
This document unpacks the deeper layers of this political development, ofers a comprehensive between-the-lines analysis, and provides strategic insights into the ramifications of the TPLF-PFDJ death pact an alliance that is not only politically suicidal but also an open declaration of war against Ethiopia’s sovereignty.
I. Reading Between the Lines: TPLF’s Fearful Tone Shift
For decades, the TPLF’s communication strategy has relied on belligerence, revisionist historical posturing, and a posture of moral superiority. However, this week’s press release broke that pattern. For the first time, the TPLF referred to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as“Honourable” a diplomatic term they previously reserved only for international audiences. This sudden change in tone is not the result of a moral epiphany but rather a direct result of the following:
Internal panic and loss of confidence in their regional and international support base.
Clear recognition of Abiy Ahmed’s warning as a calculated power move that reminded them ofthe central government’s unchallenged coercive tools.
Deterioration of the TPLF’s regional credibility due to its alliance with a genocidal Eritrean regime seen by many Tigrayans as a betrayal. This is no longer just a war of words. The Ethiopian Prime Minister’s speech drew a red line thatthe TPLF now knows it has dangerously approached perhaps crossed.
II. PM Abiy’s Strategic Warning: Might Makes Right
The Ethiopian Prime Minister’s parliamentary speech was anything but rhetorical. It was astrategic escalation. Delivered with calm but deadly precision, Abiy warned against the resurgence of warmongering narratives, thinly veiled references to the TPLF’s recent provocations and suspicious mobilization activities. His speech followed the classical doctrine of “might makes right”:Asserting the legitimacy of the federal government’s monopoly over force. Warning that any challenge to constitutional order or national unity will be met with decisive action.Indicating that the Pretoria Agreement is not a license for rebellion or foreign-aligned subversion.
This speech was also a message to regional and international observers: Ethiopia will not tolerate another round of internal insurrection, especially one coordinated through foreign alliances namely with the Eritrean regime.
III. The ጽምዶ Death Pact: TPLF-PFDJ Alliance in Crisis
A. The Real Danger Behind the Alliance
The TPLF’s revival of its alliance with Isaias Afwerki’s PFDJ regime the same regime that committed a genocide in Tigray has outraged Tigrayans and destabilized the TPLF’s internal legitimacy. This ጽምዶ is not just an alliance; it is:
A betrayal of the Tigrayan people.
A declaration of war against the Ethiopian state.
A fatal misjudgment of regional security dynamics.Internally, Tigrayan youth, intellectuals, and reformist military leaders view this pact as aninvitation to new destruction. Externally, Ethiopia sees it as the resurrection of a hostile axis-anaxis that will not be tolerated.
B. The Eritrean Factor
The PFDJ regime is internationally isolated, internally collapsing, and seeking one last life line.The TPLF is that lifeline. In exchange, the TPLF seeks military support, intelligence coordination, and a common enemy: Abiy Ahmed’s government and the reformist wing in Tigray. But this partnership is built on quicks and:Eritrea’s genocidal record is irredeemable to Tigrayans.PFDJ’s instability weakens the alliance, making it a short-term liability. International actors now view the TPLF with renewed skepticism, seeing it as regressive,reckless, and ideologically bankrupt.
IV. TPLF’s Chronic Failure to Understand Strategic Realities
The TPLF has always sufered from two dangerous flaws:
- Arrogance of power, believing past military dominance ensures future survival.
- Ideological rigidity, refusing to accept post-genocide realities and the rise of new political forces within Tigray. Their inability to adapt has manifested again:Misreading the federal government’s patience as weakness. Underestimating Abiy Ahmed’s capacity to use force if provoked. Believing a temporary alliance with Eritrea could reverse their decline.But Abiy’s warning was a sobering reality check.
V. Implications: What Comes Next?
- For the TPLF Growing isolation within Tigray and loss of legitimacy. Potential for internal rebellion within the TPLF by younger cadres and military oficers. Rising demand for accountability for betrayal of Tigrayan victims of the Eritrean invasion.
- For the Ethiopian Federal Government
Strengthened political mandate to act decisively under constitutional order. Expanded regional support, including quiet diplomacy with neighbors concerned about renewed war.A case for international legitimacy if military action becomes necessary.
- For the PFDJ Regime
Further international scrutiny. Likely economic and diplomatic pressure from Gulf actors, AU, and EU.Rising risk of collapse if war is reignited.
VI. Conclusion: The Last Gasp of a Dying Political Order
The TPLF’s panicked press release, forced politeness, and diplomatic retreat reflect a dying movement realizing it no longer sets the rules. The alliance with Eritrea is a desperate gamble a deal with a genocidal regime that has turned the TPLF from victims into accomplices. Abiy Ahmed has shown that Ethiopia’s center still holds and that the TPLF’s warmongering strategy will not go un answered. History may record this moment as the beginning of the end for the TPLF’s toxic dominance over Tigrayan politics. A new political order is rising, one that rejects both Ethiopian authoritarianism and TPLF-Eritrean betrayal.
Prepared by:Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review (HAGR)In collaboration with the Tigray Herald Editorial Board
