Mekelle፡Telaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London, (Tigray Herald)
A Delusion in the Highlands: The Paradox of TPLF Political Dynasties and the Deceptive
Campaign for Tigray’s “Independence”
Published by: The Tigray Herald & Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review (HAGR)
A Delusion in the Highlands: The Paradox of TPLF Political Dynasties and the Deceptive
Campaign for Tigray’s “Independence”
Prepared by: Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review (HAGR)
In collaboration with leading regional and international experts in geopolitics, intelligence, diplomacy, and security
Executive Summary
In the wake of the Tigray Genocide and the war of extermination waged by the Ethiopian
Federal Government and the Eritrean regime,Amhara extremist militias,
Tigray stands at a perilous political crossroads. Amid this deep crisis, a desperate faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)—comprised of entrenched dynastic elites and ideological remnants—has launched a deceptive campaign advocating for a so-called “Free and Independent Tigray State.”
This campaign is not only divorced from the political, institutional, and territorial realities of post-genocide Tigray but represents a dangerous form of political madness. It aims to manipulate public sentiment while sabotaging genuine reform and national recovery.
Most critically, this movement is driven by the very actors who historically opposed Tigray’s
independence—actors now exploiting the dream of sovereignty to salvage their decaying grip on power.
This strategic document is a direct and urgent warning to Tigray’s people and its allies. The path to justice, sovereignty, and self-determination does not lie in illusion—but in law, unity, institutional strength, and reform.
Section I: The Tragic Paradox of TPLF’s Political Dynastie
1.1 Historical Hypocrisy: The 1976 Massacre of Pro-Independence Forces
In 1976, TPLF leaders orchestrated an internal purge, executing dozens of Tigrayan
revolutionaries who demanded an independent Tigray. The TPLF’s founding doctrine rejected secessionism, advocating instead for controlling the Ethiopian state apparatus. Today, the same actors—or their political heirs—champion independence to shield themselves from accountability and to rebrand their legacy. > “The same clique that murdered independence in 1976 now sells it as salvation in 2025.”
1.2 Abandonment of the “Republic of Greater Tigray”
The TPLF’s original manifesto envisioned a sovereign “Republic of Greater Tigray”—a goal
quickly abandoned when power and access to state machinery became more convenient. That vision, once symbolic of national pride, was discarded to serve Addis-centered political ambitions. The sudden resurrection of this idea—without institutional foundations or territorial control—reflects cynical political opportunism, not national strategy.
Section II: Misleading and Deceptive Political Conduct
2.1 False Impressions, Omissions, and Manipulated Sentiment
False Impression: Dynastic elements falsely claim independence is achievable despite Tigray’s shattered institutional framework, lack of diplomatic recognition, and continuing occupation.
Deliberate Omission: They intentionally ignore that over 40% of Tigray remains under Amhara and Eritrean military occupation.
Psychological Manipulation: Public trauma from genocide and displacement is being exploited to manufacture consent for a delusional political agenda.
2.2 Dangerous Political Madness: The Risk of Civil Collapse
This propaganda emerges while:
Tigray’s governance has collapsed at the district level. The TDF is internally fractured, with corrupt generals entangled in illegal gold mining and political sabotage. The Eritrean regime remains a hostile existential threat, yet some TPLF elements hint at tactical alignment with it Reformist leadership under President Getachew Reda is under siege from lawless militias supported by dynastic warlords.
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Section III: Structural Consequences of TPLF’s Political Dynasties
3.1 Weakened Governance and Entrenched Corruption
Dynastic monopolies have stifled dissent and policymaking.Public institutions have been hijacked to protect elites and warlords. Efforts to implement accountability mechanisms and civilian oversight have been systematically sabotaged.
3.2 Economic Collapse and Elite-Driven Exploitation
Illegal mining, land grabs, and extortion by elite networks have devastated the economy.
Tigray remains without functioning healthcare, education, or infrastructure, as aid is hoarded or mismanaged by dynastic intermediaries.
3.3 Inequality, Identity Erosion, and National Disunity
Generational divides have intensified:
reformist youth are excluded, while old-guard
commanders entrench tribal patronage.
Tigrayan national unity has been weaponized and fragmented—by the same forces now
masquerading as champions of sovereignty.
Section IV: The Eritrean Paradox and the Myth of “Strategic Independence”
4.1 The Unholy Alliance: TPLF Elements and the PFDJ Regime
There are credible indications that TPLF dynastic figures have sought tacit understandings or shared interests with Eritrea’s PFDJ regime—a regime that continues to occupy Tigrayan land and seeks the eradication of Tigrayan identity. This alliance is treasonous and irreconcilable with any vision of independence. The Eritrean
regime does not even accept Tigray’s regional autonomy, let alone its sovereignty.
4.2 40% Occupation: The Reality of Territorial Disintegration
Tigray’s borders remain violently altered International recognition of Tigray remains limited to its role within Ethiopia, as per the Pretoria Peace Agreement.No independence movement can succeed without full control, functioning institutions, and global legitimacy.
Section V: The Real Path Forward for Tigray’s National Interests
5.1 Rejecting Illusions—Building Institutions First
Any realistic aspiration for sovereignty or greater autonomy requires:
Full restoration of territorial integrity
Reform of the TDF and demilitarization of dynastic control Creation of independent judicial, electoral, and accountability institutions Rebuilding of public trust through transitional justice and inclusive governance
5.2 Strategic Recommendations
Dismantle all TPLF dynastic factions and remove above-the-core generals implicated in
corruption. Launch an Independent People’s Inquiry Commission to investigate historical and post-war abuses, including the 1976 massacre. Reinforce the Interim Government’s mandate to reestablish local governance, remove unlawful warlords, and restore public services. Pursue international diplomacy under the Pretoria framework to reclaim territory and reassert the region’s security and sovereignty.
Adopt a unifying national narrative grounded in law, truth, and democratic renewal—not dynastic mythologies.
Conclusion: A Strategic Warning to the Tigrayan People
Tigray stands before a historic choice:
Will it be governed by the rule of law, democratic reform, and national unity—or fall back into the delusional cycle of dynastic betrayal, armed fragmentation, and geopolitical irrelevance This is not a theoretical debate. It is a question of survival.
Tigray cannot afford another lost generation under corrupt warlords, dynastic propaganda, or fake liberation slogans. The path forward demands reform, courage, and strategic clarity.
Final Strategic Message
“Freedom is not a slogan. Independence is not inherited. Sovereignty is not fantasy—it is built. The Tigrayan people must reject the deceit of dynastic actors and rise, united, toward a future grounded in law, dignity, and institutional strength.”
Prepared by:
Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review (HAGR)
With contributions from senior experts in geopolitics, regional security, intelligence, international law, and post-conflict state-building.
Intended Audience:
Tigray Interim Government, African Union, UN Security Council, EU External Action Service,
U.S. State Department, IGAD, and international observers of the Horn of Africa crisis
