Mekelle፡Telaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London, (Tigray Herald).
Ethiopia at a Crossroads: Balancing National Security and Refugee Rights Amid Rising Suspicion of Eritrean Influence
By Tesema Nadew
As the political temperature rises across the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia is confronting a renewed national debate over the presence of Eritrean nationals inside its borders particularly those accused of covert affiliations with the ruling People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) in Asmara.
What began as simmering suspicion has grown into a chorus of calls for stricter immigration enforcement, echoing the controversial legacy of former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s 1998 mass expulsion of Eritreans during the height of the Ethio-Eritrean war. But the question remains: can Ethiopia act decisively without undermining its legal and moral obligations to asylum seekers?
From Peace to Paranoia
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, once celebrated for signing a peace deal with Eritrea in 2018, now faces growing pressure to scrutinize the role of Eritrean nationals living in Ethiopia. The tide of public opinion shifted after Eritrean troops were implicated in widespread atrocities during the Tigray war, sparking deep mistrust across Ethiopia’s northern regions.
That mistrust has crystallized into a potent political issue, with conservative voices demanding the creation of an Ethiopian version of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) a centralized body to investigate, vet, and potentially deport individuals deemed to pose a threat to national security.
“Peace with Eritrea was not a mistake,” says one senior federal official who spoke on condition of anonymity, “but we underestimated the depth of PFDJ’s reach. We now know there are elements within Ethiopia who are not only loyal to Asmara but are profiting while undermining us from within.”
The Many Faces of Eritrean Presence
Eritreans inside Ethiopia are not a monolith. They include:
Refugees and Asylum Seekers: Many fled the authoritarian regime of President Isaias Afwerki and now reside in refugee camps or urban centers, especially in Addis Ababa and Tigray.
Economic Actors: A segment of Eritreans some with deep family ties to Ethiopia have become successful entrepreneurs in construction, logistics, and retail. Critics allege some of these individuals amassed wealth illegally or with hidden backing from the Eritrean state.
Historical Echoes: The Ghost of 1998
For some, the current tension revives memories of Zenawi’s controversial decision to deport over 70,000 Eritreans and Ethiopians of Eritrean descent at the outbreak of the 1998 war. While supporters argued the move was necessary to prevent sabotage, human rights groups condemned the mass deportation as collective punishment without due process.
The current calls for deportation reflect similar fears but in a very different context. Eritrea today is not at open war with Ethiopia, but its opaque and militarized regime remains regionally disruptive. Its involvement in the Tigray war and continued cross-border espionage have eroded trust, particularly in regions like Tigray and Afar, where scars from the conflict are still fresh.
Suspicious Routes: From Addis to Mekelle, and Back to Asmara
One emerging trend heightening concerns involves Eritrean refugees using Ethiopian passports and national IDs to fly from Addis Ababa to Mekelle. Once in Tigray, they reportedly transit through Adigrat and Zalambessa to quietly return to Eritrea. While not necessarily illegal, critics see this as a loophole being exploited by those with dual loyalties.
“This is a major national security oversight,” says a former border control officer. “The Ethiopian government must scrutinize passengers traveling to border regions. Are they Tigrayan returnees or Eritrean operatives using our documents?”
Calls have grown for airport security and immigration officers to verify identities more stringently especially for passengers boarding flights to Mekelle, Axum, and Shire, which serve as gateways to Eritrea.
ICE, or Something Else?
The idea of establishing a national Ethiopian ICE-style agency has gained traction. Supporters argue such a unit would:
Identify and deport foreign nationals with hostile affiliations.
Dismantle illicit economic networks benefiting from smuggling and money laundering.
Protect Ethiopia’s sovereignty from covert foreign influence.
Yet the proposal is also raising red flags among civil society groups.
“This is a dangerous road,” warns an Addis-based human rights lawyer. “We understand the need for national security, but not at the expense of refugee rights or legal due process. An ICE-like force could easily be politicized used to target perceived enemies rather than uphold justice.”
Abiy’s Dilemma
Caught between pressure to act and the need to preserve Ethiopia’s humanitarian commitments, Prime Minister Abiy faces a high-stakes decision. As public frustration over Eritrean involvement in past conflicts grows, inaction risks being interpreted as weakness or worse, complicity.
But a heavy-handed response could alienate Ethiopia’s Tigrayan population further, exacerbate regional tensions, and damage the country’s international standing.
“The government must act with precision, not paranoia,” says a security expert who served during the Tigray conflict. “Yes, vetting is needed but what we need more is accountability, not collective punishment.”
A Delicate Balance
The question facing Ethiopia is not just about immigration policy. It is about identity, sovereignty, and the nation’s fragile cohesion in the post-war era. The desire to protect the state is legitimate but so too is the obligation to respect human rights, especially for those fleeing tyranny.
In this crucible of mistrust and geopolitical rivalry, the next move by Abiy Ahmed’s government could either reinforce Ethiopia’s strength or deepen its divisions.
The path forward demands wisdom, restraint, and above all, a clear-eyed commitment to both justice and national security.
Tesema Nadew is a political analyst and journalist focusing on the Horn of Africa, security, and governance. Based in Addis Ababa, he writes for The Guardian and other international publications.
