Tigrai: The Open_Air Museum
Mekelle, Tigray January 29,2025 (Tigray Herald)
Written by Peter Boyle
Comprehensive Strategy to Counter the Illegal Coup Attempt and Destabilization Efforts in Tigray
Executive Summary
The ongoing political crisis in Tigray, orchestrated by a splinter faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) under the leadership of Debretsion Gebremichael and its militarized affiliates, poses a significant threat to the stability and authority of the internationally recognized Tigray Interim Government (TIG). Collaborating with external actors such as the Eritrean regime, this faction seeks to destabilize Tigray and, by extension, Ethiopia. This challenge demands a comprehensive, multifaceted strategy encompassing legal, diplomatic, economic, social, and security measures to neutralize these threats effectively.
This document outlines a strategic framework to address the illegal activities of the TPLF splinter group and its collaborators while fostering sustainable governance and stability in Tigray and the broader Horn of Africa region.
Key Objectives
Neutralize the Illegal Coup Attempt: Prevent the TPLF splinter group and its militias from undermining the TIG’s authority.
Counter Foreign Interference: Mitigate the destabilizing influence of the Eritrean regime.
Strengthen the Tigray Interim Government: Enhance the legitimacy, operational capacity, and resilience of the TIG.
Foster Regional and International Collaboration: Build coalitions with national and global stakeholders to comprehensively address the crisis.
Strategic Recommendations
1. Legal and Political Measures
Passport and Travel Restrictions:
Suspend the passports of TPLF splinter group leaders, their families, and associates.
Collaborate with international partners to impose travel bans and deny visa applications.
Strengthen border monitoring with Eritrea and the Amhara region to curtail unauthorized movements of leaders and militias.
Asset Freezing and Financial Sanctions:
Confiscate domestic and international assets linked to the splinter group, including bank accounts, properties, and businesses.
Partner with global financial institutions to trace and block illicit financial flows.
Legal Accountability:
Pursue legal action against the splinter group for conspiracy against the recognized government.
Document and publicize violations of national sovereignty and international law by the group and its collaborators.
2. Diplomatic Measures
International Recognition of the TIG:
Garner explicit support from key organizations, including the African Union (AU), the European Union (EU), the United Nations (UN), and influential nations like the U.S. and the UK.
Expose Foreign Interference:
Launch diplomatic campaigns to highlight Eritrea’s destabilizing activities.
Advocate for targeted international sanctions against Eritrea.
Strengthen Partnerships:
Collaborate with Ethiopia’s federal government, neighboring states, and global powers to counteract the coup.
Establish joint task forces to address cross-border security challenges and humanitarian concerns.
3. Economic Measures
Cut Off Financial Support:
Dismantle financial and logistical networks supporting the TPLF splinter group.
Coordinate with international bodies to combat money laundering and smuggling activities.
Economic Pressure on Eritrea:
Advocate for stringent economic sanctions to weaken Eritrea’s destabilization efforts.
Partner with allies to disrupt Eritrean trade routes and financial transactions.
4. Military and Security Measures
Strengthen Border Security:
Deploy additional security personnel along borders with Eritrea and the Amhara region.
Employ advanced surveillance technologies to detect illegal militia and arms movements.
Disarm Illegal Militias:
Initiate targeted disarmament campaigns against militias affiliated with the TPLF splinter group.
Implement amnesty programs for fighters willing to surrender.
Enhance TIG Security Capacity:
Equip and train TIG security forces to counter both internal and external threats.
Collaborate with international partners to secure modern equipment and intelligence systems.
5. Social and Psychological Measures
Counter-Propaganda Campaign:
Launch information campaigns to debunk the splinter group’s false narratives.
Leverage social media, traditional media, and grassroots outreach to build public trust in the TIG.
Engage the Tigrayan Public:
Facilitate public forums and dialogues to address grievances and promote reconciliation.
Engage local leaders and elders in peace-building efforts.
Rehabilitate Militias:
Develop reintegration programs offering education, vocational training, and psychological support for former militia members.
6. Full Implementation of the Pretoria Peace Agreement
Restore Tigray’s territorial integrity and ensure the safe return of internally displaced persons (IDPs).
Uphold Tigray’s sovereignty under Ethiopia’s federal constitution without delay.
7. Humanitarian and Development Measures
Address Humanitarian Needs:
Prioritize the delivery of food, shelter, and medical aid to vulnerable populations.
Partner with international NGOs to streamline humanitarian assistance.
Promote Economic Development:
Invest in infrastructure, education, and job creation to stabilize the region and mitigate unrest.
Support local entrepreneurship through targeted grants and capacity-building initiatives.
Implementation Framework
Crisis Response Team: Form a multidisciplinary team of government officials, security experts, diplomats, and civil society representatives to oversee implementation.
Timelines: Define clear short-term, medium-term, and long-term objectives with actionable steps.
Monitoring and Evaluation: Regularly assess the effectiveness of interventions and adjust strategies as needed.
Conclusion
The illegal coup attempt by the TPLF splinter group, compounded by Eritrean interference, endangers the stability of Tigray and the Horn of Africa. Decisive, coordinated action as outlined in this strategy is essential to neutralize these threats, reinforce the legitimacy of the Tigray Interim Government, and pave the way for sustainable peace and development.
The time to act is now.
Authored by:
Peter Boyle
Horn of Africa Peace and Security Expert
Date: 29 January 2025
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
