Mekelle፡Telaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London, (Tigray Herald).
The Coming Firestorm: How Clashing Agendas over Western Tigray Could Ignite a Catastrophic War in the Horn of Africa
By Tekie Hagos
The Coming Firestorm: How Clashing Agendas over Western Tigray Could Ignite a Catastrophic War in the Horn of Africa
Introduction:
Tigray stands on the precipice of a devastating new conflict, far more dangerous than the 2020 war that ravaged its people and destabilized the Horn of Africa. The convergence of militarized agendas by the TPLF/TDF, a destabilization campaign by Eritrea, and an ambiguous stance from the Tigray Interim Government is creating a combustible mix that could trigger a multifront war, worsen the humanitarian crisis, and fracture Tigray from within. At the heart of this storm is Western Tigray Welkait, Humera, and Tsegede, whose future now shapes the fate of millions. This analysis examines the actors, motives, and consequences of this accelerating crisis.
- TPLF/TDF’s Western Imperative: The Push for Reinstatement at Any Cost
For dominant factions within the TPLF and senior TDF generals, Western Tigray is a red line. Long considered an inseparable part of Tigray’s identity and statehood, its forceful return has become a strategic imperative politically, emotionally, and militarily. The urgency is heightened by the looming rainy season, which would hinder logistical efforts to return the thousands of displaced Tigrayans to their homes. This sense of urgency has led to a hardened posture within the military, fueling calls for an imminent offensive to dislodge Amhara and ENDF forces currently in control.
- Eritrea’s Strategic Gamble: Regime Change in Addis, A Buffer Zone in Tigray
While Eritrea’s motives may appear aligned with these Tigrayan factions on the surface, its long-term goals are far more self-serving. President Isaias Afwerki views the TPLF as a historic nemesis and sees an opportunity to weaken both the Abiy Ahmed regime and any future powerful Tigrayan force. By aligning with disillusioned TDF commanders, Eritrea is positioning itself to:
Destabilize Ethiopia from within;
Install Tigray as a weakened, fragmented buffer zone;
Maintain control of northern Tigrayan territories it currently occupies.
The silence of certain TPLF/TDF actors on the 52 Woredas in Eritrean hands suggests a tacit, transactional alliance—one that could unravel Tigray’s territorial integrity in the name of short-term gains.
- The Interim Government’s Murky Position: Between National Duty and Military Pressure
General Tadesse Worede’s Interim Government has publicly pledged to reclaim all of Tigray’s territory and ensure the return of IDPs. However, its alignment with hardline military factions seeking a violent solution to the Western Tigray issue raises troubling questions about the government’s autonomy. By implicitly supporting armed intervention, the Interim Government risks becoming an enabler of a broader war, possibly acting under the pressure of generals whose goals extend beyond constitutional mandates.
- The Unspoken Crisis: Eritrea’s Continued Occupation of Northern Tigray
The near-complete silence from TPLF and TDF leaders regarding Eritrea’s continued control over large swaths of northern Tigray is revealing. This strategic blind spot suggests a dangerous compromise: Eritrean support in reclaiming Western Tigray in exchange for overlooking its grip on northern districts. This cynical calculus exposes deep contradictions in the pro-reclamation rhetoric and hints at a future where one part of Tigray may be traded off for control of another—a move that could permanently fracture the region.
- Toward a Worse-Than-2020 Scenario: War on Multiple Fronts
What looms ahead is not just another flare-up, but it could be a far more expansive and destructive conflict than the 2020 war.
Direct Eritrean-TDF Coordination: Unlike their opposing roles in the previous war, the potential for direct cooperation between Eritrean troops and TDF units against the Ethiopian government would open up a complex and unpredictable battlefield.
Multifront Engagements: Fighting could erupt in Western Tigray, northern districts, and even within Tigray itself.
Humanitarian Collapse: Already suffering from famine, displacement, and shattered infrastructure, Tigray would plunge deeper into chaos, with IDP return plans turning into military operations endangering civilian lives
Regional Shockwaves: A renewed war risks drawing in Sudan, exacerbating Ethiopia’s Red Sea ambitions, and triggering instability across the Horn of Africa.
- Civil War Within: Tigray’s Internal Disintegration
Amidst the external threats, Tigray faces a looming internal breakdown. The rift between the Debretsion-aligned TPLF generals and the camp of Getachew Reda is widening. The emergence of splinter groups, such as a potential “Tigray Peace Force” made up of dissenting TDF factions , threatens to ignite an intra-Tigrayan civil war.
Such a war would:
Destroy internal unity;
Divert scarce resources from humanitarian needs;
Invite external actors to exploit the chaos.
- A Ray of Diplomacy: Getachew Reda’s Humera Visit
In stark contrast to the militarized environment, Getachew Reda, now advising PM Abiy on East African affairs—has launched a diplomatic effort to facilitate IDP returns through peaceful negotiation. His recent trip to Humera, where he met with local security and residents, signals a last-ditch effort to resolve the Western Tigray issue without resorting to war.
However, his credibility is contested: many in the TPLF accuse him of siding with the federal government. With war drums growing louder, his initiative may be too little, too late, an act of diplomacy racing against the clock.
Conclusion: The Conflagration Ahead
The alignment of hardline TPLF/TDF factions with Eritrean objectives, the fragile posture of the Interim Government, and the precarious peace efforts of Getachew Reda reveal a Tigray at war with itself and on the verge of war with Ethiopia. Western Tigray, long a flashpoint, has become the matchstick.
Without urgent and unified diplomacy, the Horn of Africa could witness a conflict worse than 2020 a war not only of armies but ideologies, betrayals, and survival. Only bold, inclusive political leadership and international pressure can extinguish the fire before it consumes Tigray, Ethiopia, and beyond.
