Mekelle, February 23፡, 2025 (Tigray Herald)
Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review (HAGR)Strategic Analysis Report February 2025
The Fragmentation of TDF and the Misguided Politicization of TPLF-Affiliated Militias: A Strategic Military and Geopolitical Analysis
Introduction
The recent transformation of TDF’s once-unified leadership into factionalized militias operating under the banner of the defunct TPLF leadership represents one of the most damaging political and military developments in post-genocide Tigray. These factions, driven by blind loyalty to the politically bankrupt Debretsion Gebremichael-led TPLF splinter group, have abandoned military professionalism and are now undermining Tigray’s ability to recover from war and secure its future.
Their strategic and diplomatic miscalculations not only weaken TDF but also serve the interests of the Eritrean regime. This document provides a comprehensive analysis of this crisis, its geopolitical implications, and strategic recommendations for Tigray to leverage the emerging regional conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
The Politicization of TDF: A Self-Destructive Path
- The Militarization of TPLF Commissars: From Military Professionals to Political Militants
Many former TDF generals and officers have rebranded themselves as TPLF-affiliated militia leaders, disregarding their military neutrality and instead becoming extensions of failed political actors.
Their continued allegiance to a defunct TPLF leadership isolates them from broader Tigray interests, rendering them ineffective as a cohesive military force.
The deliberate weakening of TDF by these factions has created a security vacuum, making Tigray vulnerable to renewed external aggression.
- The Internal Sabotage of TDF and Its Consequences
The factionalism within TDF has resulted in a decline in military readiness, coordination, and strategic vision.
Tigray’s external enemies, particularly the Eritrean regime, are capitalizing on this internal division, using it to weaken TDF and ensure that Tigray remains in a state of political paralysis.
The lack of a unified command structure undermines any efforts for genuine military recovery and national security consolidation in post-genocide Tigray.
The Eritrean-Ethiopian Dynamic: A No-Win Situation for TPLF Militias
- The Fatal Mistake of Collaborating with the Eritrean Regime
Some TPLF-affiliated militia leaders have engaged in behind-the-scenes collaboration with Eritrean regime elements, falsely believing they can maneuver politically to their advantage.
The Eritrean regime’s long-standing objective has been the complete subjugation of Tigray. Any collaboration is a strategic blunder that only serves Eritrea’s interest in ensuring Tigray remains weak and fractured.
By aligning with Eritrean interests, these militias put themselves in an inevitable conflict with broader Tigrayan national interests, setting the stage for their political and military irrelevance.
- Ethiopia’s Growing Diplomatic and Political Advantage
The Ethiopian Federal Government, under PM Abiy Ahmed, has successfully consolidated diplomatic support, including from Western governments, who prioritize Ethiopia’s stability over Tigray’s independence.
Ethiopia’s alignment with global diplomatic trends, including economic recovery and regional stability, gives it a significant advantage over the fragmented and internally divided Tigray leadership.
This external diplomatic pressure further weakens TDF-aligned forces, making it imperative for Tigray to recalibrate its military and diplomatic strategy.
Strategic Recommendations: Leveraging the Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict for Tigray’s National Interest
- Developing a Comprehensive National Security Strategy
Tigray must establish a clear and professional National Security and Military Strategy aligned with the Pretoria Peace Agreement while safeguarding its long-term survival and sovereignty.
The strategy must focus on unifying all military elements under a professional command, free from political manipulations.
Intelligence capabilities should be strengthened to counter both external threats and internal subversion from factionalized elements.
- Capitalizing on Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions
Tigray must position itself as a strategic player in the inevitable Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict by ensuring that Eritrea’s regime remains the primary geopolitical adversary.
Any attempt to mediate or influence the outcome of an Ethiopia-Eritrea war should be carefully calculated to ensure that Eritrea’s destabilization benefits Tigray’s national security.
A pragmatic approach to Ethiopia should be pursued to leverage diplomatic channels for Tigray’s benefit while avoiding direct confrontations.
- The Strategic Importance of Regime Change in Eritrea
The Eritrean regime, led by Isaias Afwerki, remains the mastermind behind the Tigray genocide and the most persistent threat to Tigray’s security.
The removal of Isaias Afwerki and the dismantling of his totalitarian rule would significantly shift the power balance in the Horn of Africa.
Regime change in Eritrea would create an opportunity for Tigray to establish a more stable security framework and eliminate one of its most existential threats.
A post-Isaias Eritrea, with a more democratic or decentralized government, would likely be less hostile toward Tigray, creating avenues for diplomatic re-engagement.
- Diplomatic and Geopolitical Alignments
Tigray must engage with international allies, including Western governments, to align its national security objectives with broader democratic interests in the Horn of Africa.
Strengthening ties with key regional and global players should be prioritized to ensure that Tigray’s interests are not sidelined in the larger geopolitical realignments.
Leveraging human rights advocacy related to the Tigray genocide can be an effective tool in securing international support for Tigray’s long-term security goals.
Conclusion
The current fragmentation of TDF due to misguided political alignments with the failed TPLF faction is one of the greatest self-inflicted wounds to Tigray’s national security. The internal sabotage, combined with strategic blunders in aligning with Eritrean regime interests, is accelerating Tigray’s vulnerability in the regional power struggle.
However, the inevitable war between Ethiopia and Eritrea presents an opportunity for Tigray to recalibrate its military strategy, consolidate its national security framework, and ensure that the long-term removal of the Eritrean regime serves its strategic interests. A disciplined, professional, and strategically minded TDF, free from political manipulation, remains the key to Tigray’s survival and future sovereignty.
This document is produced by Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review (HAGR) in collaboration with regional security, military, and diplomatic experts.
