Mekelle, March 4፡2025 (Tigray Herald)
The Vicious Circle of the Tigray War: The Inevitable Conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea and its devastating Impact on the Tigray People
By Assefa Shiferaw Arefayne(Phd candidadte)
Introduction:
Throughout history, the Tigray people have been known as fierce warriors, defending their land from foreign invaders, including Turkey, Egypt, and Italy, particularly from the northern borders. Internally, Tigrayans have always taken a strong stance against oppression and injustice.
This was evident during the reign of Emperor Haile Selassie and the military junta under Mengistu Haile Mariam. It has become a tradition passed down through generations. However, these wars, while fought valiantly, have often led to nothing but misery and devastation for the Tigray people. To understand this, we must examine three major wars and their effects on Tigray.
1. The War against Ethiopia: TPLF (Tigray) and ELF (Eritrea) vs. Ethiopia
The guerrilla war against the military junta of Mengistu Haile Mariam, particularly by Tigrayans and Eritrean fighters, resulted in the loss of over 100,000 Tigrayans, leaving more than 100,000 others wounded or disabled. Similarly, approximately the same number of Ethiopian soldiers, including those from the infamous Third Brigade (Sostegnaw), Azo (Crocodile), and Zendo (Copra) predominantly Tigrayan fighters supporting the Ethiopian government also perished.
Result:
The downfall of the Derg regime and the subsequent independence of Eritrea.
Impact on Tigray:
Tigrayans were left with a deep sense of hatred from Ethiopians and the new Ethiopian constitution, which created large regions that overshadowed smaller nations and nationalities, leaving Tigrayans as a marginalized minority.
2. The War with Eritrea: EPRDF/TPLF and the Entire Ethiopian State
Initially, the TPLF supported Eritrean independence, viewing Eritrea as a colony under Ethiopian rule. However, the TPLF focused more on the liberation of Eritrea than on securing additional benefits for Tigray, despite the Tigray people’s significant role in the civil war’s outcome.
The TPLF did not plan for Tigray to become an independent state or for Tigrayans to benefit greatly from the victory. Meanwhile, opposition parties used this situation to criticize the EPRDF government, claiming that it was not loyal to Ethiopia and that the country needed access to the sea or ports. The Eritrean government took advantage of this and sought to weaken Ethiopia, further complicating relations. The war between Ethiopia and Eritrea led to immense loss of life and strained relations.
Result:
Loss of thousands of Ethiopian lives, weakening of the Eritrean ELF regime, and a lasting impact on Ethiopian-Eritrean relations.
Impact on Tigray:
Tigrayans faced hatred from Eritreans, Ethiopian chauvinists, and lost Tigray territory along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border. Eritrea later used this conflict to justify actions during the genocide against Tigrayans in the subsequent years.
3. The War on Tigray: Ethiopia and Eritrea against Tigray
The most recent conflict, the war on Tigray, has been devastating, leading to the death of tens of thousands of Tigrayans and leaving many others with disabilities, trauma, and poverty. An estimated one million internally displaced persons (IDPs) are living in dire conditions, with little hope of returning to their homes.
Result:
The genocide of the Tigray people.
Impact on Tigray:
Tigray has lost nearly one million of its people, and its territory is now occupied by non-ENDF (Ethiopian National Defense Force) military forces. Neither the interim government nor the TPLF has the power or the clear roadmap needed to reclaim the territory, mobilize the population, or return the nearly-dead IDPs to safety.
4. The Inevitable War with Eritrea: A Coming Crisis
The next potential war could involve Ethiopian government forces and a faction of the TPLF on one side, and Eritrean government forces and another faction of TPLF on the other. This creates an imminent threat to the Tigray people’s survival and their future.
The Ethiopian government has employed “silent weapons” against the Tigray people, the TPLF, and the interim government through propaganda, diplomacy, and internal interference. A rift within the TPLF, including the replacement of Dr. Debretsion with Getachew Reda as regional president, has deepened the crisis. There are also signs that some factions within the TPLF have allied with the Eritrean government and the interim regional government, possibly siding with the federal government.
This dangerous development threatens to destroy the Tigray people, leaving the region in a state of chaos for generations to come. If this happens, the TPLF’s illogical alliance with Eritrea could be blamed, as it may have contributed to Tigray’s destruction by undermining the interim government.
Expected Result:
Eritrea may lose its government, and the strategic port of Asab could be lost.
Expected Impact on Tigray:
As the conflict is likely to be centered in Tigray, it will cause immense devastation and loss of life. The region could lose its territory, diminishing its standing within Ethiopia, further marginalizing the Tigray people. The vicious circle of wars and conflicts continues to leave the Tigray people in a perpetual state of suffering, with little hope for a peaceful future. The future of Tigray, its people, and its territory remains uncertain, overshadowed by past and present struggles that have yet to resolve.
Recommendations:
1. It is a time to wake up the TDF (Tigray defence force) to analyze the situation, give priority to the interest of the people, and to become neutral from politics and safeguarding its people And support to the interim government to properly function.
2. The interim government has to continue with patience to solve the conflict within the party and act as a government to accommodate all opinions and issues raised from any corner.
3. All concerned Tigrians must come together and lay out a clear roadmap about the future of Tigray rather than leave it to politicians.
Assefa Shiferaw Arefayne is among the a well known Tigrean Scholars.he is a Phd Candidate, in Mekelle University, Tigray, Ethiopia
E:mail: Assefaherm@yahoo.com
