Mekelle፡Telaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London, (Tigray Herald)
Tigray at a Crossroads: The Perilous Gamble of the TPLF and the Threat of Erasure
By Abraham Beyene
Tigray stands at a historic and perilous crossroads. A dangerous political calculation is unfolding—one that threatens not only the survival of the TPLF but the very existence of Tigray as a cohesive and recognized entity. In what appears to be a desperate move to remain relevant, the TPLF leadership may be exploring an alliance with the Eritrean regime—an act that could accelerate Tigray’s fragmentation and collapse.
Such an alliance would be catastrophic. It would not only lead to the eventual elimination of the TPLF’s remaining leadership—likely ending in Shaebia’s notorious container prisons—but could also pave the way for a far graver outcome: the annexation of parts of Tigray into Eritrea’s Tigrigna-speaking regions. This would mark not just a territorial loss, but a cultural and political erasure of Tigray from the Ethiopian landscape.
President Isaias Afwerki’s ambitions have never been limited to defeating the TPLF. His broader, long-term goal has always been the destabilization, dismemberment, and eventual dissolution of Tigray as a political force. What began as ideological rivalry has evolved into a calculated campaign to erase Tigray’s identity and future. Now, with Ethiopia fragmented and federal institutions weakened, Afwerki sees a rare opportunity to complete his project.
Tragically, Ethiopia’s federal government—led by the Prosperity Party under the OPDO—has become, at best, a silent bystander and, at worst, a passive collaborator. The regime has repeatedly failed to defend the country’s territorial integrity, turning a blind eye to Eritrean incursions into northern Ethiopia. For some in the PP, Eritrea’s occupation of parts of Tigray may even seem like a convenient way to neutralize a political rival.
In this geopolitical equation, both Asmara and Addis Ababa may see a weakened, fragmented Tigray as a strategic win. For Isaias, it fulfills a long-standing geopolitical objective. For the PP, it removes a powerful opposition force without direct confrontation. But for the people of Tigray, the consequences would be devastating—the loss of political identity, cultural autonomy, and historical continuity.
And yet, instead of rejecting this trap, the TPLF leadership appears to be walking straight into it. Whether driven by desperation, disillusionment, or sheer political hubris, they risk dragging an already battered region into yet another man-made catastrophe. If their primary goal is to avoid accountability or exile, they would do far less damage by seeking asylum abroad than by gambling with the future of an entire people.
Tigray needs leadership grounded in vision, not vengeance—in wisdom, not short-sighted survivalism. This moment demands a break from the politics of the past and a commitment to safeguarding the region’s long-term interests.
History will not look kindly on those who wagered Tigray’s future for the sake of clinging to power. And the judgment it delivers will be both clear and unforgiving.
The Eritrean regime, crippled by economic decay and limited military capacity, is not interested in propping up the TPLF or reshaping Ethiopian politics. Its aim is far more sinister: the complete annihilation of the TPLF and the systematic dismantling of Tigray’s sovereignty, identity, and aspirations.
The writing is on the wall. Tigray must choose a path rooted in unity, resilience, and foresight—or risk being written out of history altogethe
