Mekelle፡Telaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London,March 20፡2025 (Tigray Herald)
Tigray is on the brink of renewed war as political infighting and military escalation threaten to destabilize the region.
By Batseba Seifu
More than two years after the Pretoria Agreement ended a devastating conflict that claimed an estimated 600,000 civilian lives, a power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has reignited tensions.
Factional divisions between forces loyal to TPLF President Debretsion Gebremichael and Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) leader Getachew Reda have led to violent clashes, targeted arrests, and political instability. The March 11, 2025, attack on the TIA by Debretsion-aligned forces and the mobilization of military factions opposed to him on March 19, 2025 signal a deepening crisis. Without urgent intervention, Tigray risks descending into another prolonged and catastrophic conflict, engulfing the Horn of Africa.
Political Infighting and the Legitimacy Crisis
At the heart of the crisis is a struggle for power between Debretsion and Getachew Reda and their supporters. The TIA, formed post-Pretoria Agreement, was meant to lead the region toward stability, but its exclusionary structure—dominated by the TPLF—has alienated key political and military stakeholders.
- Getachew Reda was installed as interim leader by the Federal Government although Debretsion Gebremichael was selected first by the TPLF initially.
- Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government has manipulated Tigray’s leadership selection process to create a divide and rule, balancing strategy.
- Rival factions now seek control over Tigray’s governance, with increasing political violence and power struggles disrupting the region’s fragile recovery.
Military Escalation: The Growing Threat of War
Tigray’s once-unified Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) are now splintered. Key developments include:
- Getachew Reda dismissed senior military officials, triggering further unrest.
- On March 11, 2025, Debretsion-aligned forces seized key government buildings in an armed assault.
- Since March 19, 2025, a counter-mobilization by anti-Debretsion forces has increased the risk of open warfare.
- Reports of targeted arrests, and human rights abuses have escalated, intensifying fears of large-scale violence.
Civilian Impact: A Humanitarian Emergency
Tigray’s civilian population remains highly vulnerable, suffering from the aftermath of war, political instability, and economic collapse:
- Over three million people remain displaced, with slow recovery efforts.
- Healthcare infrastructure is in ruins—70% of facilities were destroyed in the war.
- Food insecurity is severe, and economic conditions are worsening.
- Civil unrest is rising, with protests met by violent crackdowns.
Policy Recommendations: Preventing Another War
To avoid a devastating conflict that could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa, immediate actions are required:
- International Mediation: The AU, UN, EU, and key global powers must urgently intervene to mediate between rival factions.
- Inclusive Governance: The interim regional council, which has a decision power, must be empowered to select leadership and expand representation beyond the TPLF.
- End External Interference: The Ethiopian federal government and Eritrean influence must cease political manipulation in Tigray’s leadership decisions. This is particularly critical in the highly probable war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
- Military De-escalation: Factions must halt inflammatory rhetoric and mobilization, with independent monitoring of human rights violations.
Tigray’s Future: A Choice Between Unity and War
The coming days will determine whether Tigray moves toward peace or renewed war. The international community must act decisively to prevent another humanitarian catastrophe.
An existing representative interim council, with decision making power, could offer a path toward democracy and stability. But without urgent intervention, Tigray faces another cycle of bloodshed—with devastating consequences for the Horn of Africa at large.
African Union United Nations European Union at the UN – New York Council of the European Union The Embassy of Canada to Ethiopia Donald J. Trump
