Mekelle፡Telaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London, (Tigray Herald).
Tigray readies its military leadership for war as former enemies unite against Abiy
By Gebre Tatios
In a dramatic shift that could reshape the political and military landscape of the Horn of Africa, Tigray is quietly reassembling its military leadership in anticipation of a renewed conflict, signaling a possible showdown with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. Sources close to the Tigrayan Defence Forces (TDF) say preparations are underway for what could become a decisive phase in Ethiopia’s protracted civil crisis, as unlikely alliances begin to take shape.
The Tigrayan command, once fractured by the devastating two-year war with Ethiopian and Eritrean forces, is reportedly regrouping under a more inclusive and restructured leadership. This includes veteran commanders as well as younger officers loyal not to the outlawed TPLF political elite but to the broader aspiration of a self-governing, post-war Tigray. The mobilization is seen as a response to growing threats from both the federal army and the controversial military presence of Eritrean forces in northern Ethiopia.
In a bold geopolitical twist, Eritrean opposition elements and Tigrayan military figures once bitter rivals are now in discreet talks, seeking to align strategies against what they call “a shared authoritarian threat.” Diplomats and regional analysts say this emerging anti-Abiy axis may also include disgruntled Amhara militias such as Fano, Oromo opposition groups, and disillusioned elements of the federal army sidelined during Abiy’s recent purges.
Old enemies, new alliances
For decades, Tigray and Eritrea were entangled in fierce battles, from the 1998 border war to the most recent atrocities committed by Eritrean troops in Tigray. Yet, the growing sense of betrayal by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed whom both sides now accuse of authoritarian overreach and ethnic-based manipulation—has prompted a re-evaluation of historic animosities.
“This is not about forgetting the past,” said a Tigrayan commander who spoke on condition of anonymity. “It’s about recognizing that Abiy poses a danger to all our peoples Eritreans, Tigrayans, Oromos, and even Amharas. We either face him separately and perish, or unite and survive.”
Eritrean defectors, reportedly backed by diaspora activists and regional actors, have been in contact with Tigrayan military planners since late 2024. A London-based analyst confirmed the talks are “real and gaining traction,” adding that the recent clampdowns by Asmara on dissent have driven several high-ranking Eritrean officers into exile, some now looking to Mekelle for strategic support.
Tigray’s fractured leadership recalibrates
This growing momentum comes after months of internal crisis in Tigray. The once-dominant TPLF leadership has been widely discredited for its role in triggering and mishandling the war that devastated the region. In recent weeks, a wave of resignations, arrests, and political realignments has swept through the Tigray Interim Administration, as grassroots movements and survivors’ groups demand accountability.
Meanwhile, Tigray’s civilian leadership is said to be working in tandem with these efforts, albeit cautiously. Several humanitarian and political organizations, including SIMRET and the Tigray Advocacy for Human Rights and Justice International (TAHRJI), have warned of imminent large-scale displacement and a new wave of human rights violations unless international actors step in.
Diaspora urges Abiy to act
In a notable development, Tigrayan diaspora communities across the United States, Europe, and Canada have issued an urgent appeal to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, calling on him to protect civilians in Tigray and take immediate action to halt what they describe as “rogue elements” within the TPLF military elite.
“We do not want to see Tigray dragged into another war by individuals who have lost all legitimacy,” said a joint statement by the coalition I Can’t Be Silent About Tigray. “Prime Minister Abiy has a responsibility to prevent bloodshed not by silence or inaction, but through bold political steps that protect the lives of innocent civilians.”
The statement warns that renewed conflict could undo the fragile recovery efforts underway in the war-torn region and reignite large-scale atrocities similar to those committed between 2020 and 2022. Several diaspora organizations have also requested international mediation to dismantle armed factions operating outside constitutional control.
Military leadership warns against new war
Amid rising tensions, Ethiopia’s top military official, Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, has issued a rare public warning to the TPLF leadership. In a statement delivered last week, he cautioned the group against any alliance with the Eritrean regime, calling such a move “reckless” and in violation of the Pretoria Agreement, which ended the brutal war in 2022.
Instead of reigniting war, Field Marshal Birhanu encouraged TPLF leaders to pursue legal and peaceful paths forward, including exercising the right to self-determination under Article 39 of the Ethiopian Constitution. “If the Tigray leadership truly wants independence, they have the constitutional means to pursue it without dragging civilians into another round of bloodshed,” he said.
This position echoes sentiments expressed earlier by Adanech Abebe, Mayor of Addis Ababa and a prominent political voice during the war. According to sources, when TPLF forces advanced to Dessie in late 2021, Adanech reportedly urged them not to push toward the capital but instead to declare their independence constitutionally. “There was a legal road available, but the TPLF chose confrontation,” she was quoted as saying in a cabinet briefing. “We warned them. They ignored us.”
To date, the TPLF leadership has not issued a formal response to either the military’s warning or the civilian calls for nonviolent resolution.
Abiy’s silence, and a widening rebellion
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has remained conspicuously silent in the face of mounting military and political pressure. His administration is grappling with unrest across multiple fronts, including a deepening financial crisis, protests in Oromia, and an intensifying insurgency by Fano militias in Amhara.
The recent resignation of several key army generals, coupled with reports of internal dissent within the federal military establishment, has further weakened Abiy’s hold. Analysts believe that unless a genuine political dialogue is initiated soon, Ethiopia could enter a full-scale multi-front civil war one that may even draw in foreign powers through proxy alignments.
In a symbolic move that underscores the gravity of the moment, Tigrayan commanders recently held a closed-door summit in the war-scarred town of Axum, bringing together surviving generals, IDP representatives, and diaspora strategists. According to leaks from the meeting, the theme was “Reclaiming Sovereignty, Securing the Future.”
The specter of a wider regional war
The potential for Eritrean opposition groups to join forces with Tigray raises the stakes significantly. Eritrea’s autocratic regime, led by President Isaias Afwerki, has long used regional instability as a means of maintaining control. A united front against Asmara and Addis Ababa could, in turn, provoke more aggressive regional interventions, especially from the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, both of which have complex interests in the Red Sea corridor and the Nile Basin.
Observers fear that such a development could draw the Horn of Africa into a wider, bloodier regional conflict one that could dwarf the previous Tigray war in scope and human cost.
International silence deafening
Despite the warning signs, the international community remains largely disengaged. The African Union, headquartered in Addis Ababa, has not issued a statement on the latest military build-up. Western nations, wary of alienating Ethiopia’s government and preoccupied with crises elsewhere, have offered little more than calls for “restraint and dialogue.”
As Tigray readies its military leadership for what could be a defining battle, the rest of the world appears to be watching passively once again, risking complicity through silence.
