Mekelle፡Telaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London, (Tigray Herald)
Exposing Isaias Afwerki’s Tyranny, Iran Alliance, and Strategic Threat to Regional and Global Security
Eritrea: The Axis of Destabilization
Subtitle:
A Strategic Intelligence Report on Eritrea’s Role as Iran’s Proxy and Threat Multiplier in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea Corridor
By Leading Security and Intelligence Experts – Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review
Executive Summary
Eritrea, under the autocratic rule of Isaias Afwerki, has emerged as a destabilizing force in the Horn of Africa—operating as a strategic proxy for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Its alliance with Tehran has transformed the state into a geopolitical threat, endangering international maritime commerce, regional peace, and global security.
The Eritrean regime is deeply complicit in
arming and training extremist groups, including the Houthis and al-Shabaab, and facilitating illicit military operations that breach international law with impunity.
This report offers a comprehensive assessment of Eritrea’s regional sabotage, exposes the growing Iran-backed axis of instability, and presents urgent policy recommendations to neutralize Asmara’s threat. It also underscores the necessity of regime change in Eritrea as a prerequisite for long-term peace across the Red Sea and the wider Horn region.
I. Eritrea as Iran’s Proxy: Strategic Threat to Israel, the U.S., and the EU
Since the early 2000s, Eritrea has been steadily transformed into a critical asset within Iran’s regional strategy. Intelligence reports and defector testimonies confirm a series of covert high-level engagements between the Iranian Quds Force and the Eritrean regime.
Bilateral military cooperation agreements were signed in Tehran and Asmara in 2008 and 2013.
Eritrean ports and intelligence infrastructure have been repurposed to facilitate Iranian arms shipments to the Houthis in Yemen and Palestinian groups targeting Israel.
Eritrea now offers Iran direct access to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait—a global maritime chokepoint vital to Western and Gulf economies.
II. Strategic Fallout: The Eritrea-Iran-Houthi Axis
The implications of this alliance are profound:
A 2024 UN intelligence briefing confirmed Eritrean military coordination in training and logistical support for both the Houthis and al-Shabaab
Iranian weaponry and tactical support are funneled through Eritrea to destabilize Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The 2022 Houthi missile attacks against the UAE, and the continued targeting of Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea, highlight the operational capabilities of this triad.
III. Tyranny Timeline: Isaias Afwerki’s Legacy of War and Subversion
1991–Present: Absolute dictatorship entrenched; no constitution, elections, or civil liberties.
1998–2000: Initiated the Eritrea-Ethiopia border war—over 100,000 lives lost.
2006–2009: UN verified Eritrea’s support for al-Shabaab, including arms and sanctuary.
2011: Eritrean intelligence implicated in a failed bombing plot targeting the African Union headquarters.
2020–2022: Eritrean forces led war crimes in Tigray—including massacres, rape, and looting. 2024: UN confirms Eritrea’s facilitation of coordination between Houthis and al-Shabaab.
Notably, remnants of the TPLF have paradoxically formed clandestine alliances with the very regime that committed genocide in Tigray—subverting the Pretoria Peace Agreement and undermining regional peace efforts.
IV. Complicity in Terrorism: Coordinating the Houthi–al-Shabaab Nexus
Despite ideological differences, Sunni extremist al-Shabaab now receives arms and training from the Shia-aligned Houthis, facilitated by Eritrea’s military-intelligence apparatus.
Eritrea serves as the physical and strategic corridor for Iran’s terrorist outreach.
The Eritrean regime actively orchestrates arms and intelligence transfers, bridging extremist networks and fostering transnational terrorism in the Horn.
V. Red Sea in Peril: Global Maritime and Economic Risks
The Red Sea accounts for more than 12% of global trade flows. Its destabilization poses
existential threats to global commerce:
Houthi-led attacks on commercial vessels have already disrupted shipping routes.
Eritrea’s involvement in maritime militarization and arms trafficking threatens Israeli, Gulf, and broader international interests. Eritrea’s enabling role in regional piracy and smuggling must be urgently countered.
VI. Internal Oppression, External Aggression
Eritrea is the most militarized country per capita worldwide. Internally:
There is no free press, no independent judiciary, no opposition parties Thousands are imprisoned without trial; indefinite forced conscription continues. The regime exports violence to mask its domestic failure—using external aggression as a tool for survival.
VII. Why Isaias Must Fall: Strategic Policy Recommendations
- Official Terrorism Designation:
Classify Eritrea as a state sponsor of terrorism under international law.
- Renewed Sanctions Regime:
Reactivate and expand UN and targeted sanctions against PFDJ elites, military command structures, and Iranian-linked networks.
- Red Sea Security Coalition:
Establish a multinational naval alliance—including Israel, the U.S., the EU, Gulf States, and the UK—to patrol and neutralize illicit Eritrean-Iranian maritime activities.
- Support Democratic Transition Forces:
Recognize and assist democratic Eritrean opposition movements, especially the Blue Revolution network, in their quest for constitutional governance. - Coordinated Regime Removal Strategy:
The UAE, Israel, the U.S., and EU must adopt a unified strategy—both covert and
diplomatic—to end Isaias Afwerki’s rule and support the establishment of a transitional,
democratic government.
Conclusion፡The Fall of Isaias Afwerki Is a Global Imperative
The Eritrean regime’s unchecked impunity has left a trail of destruction—from regional wars and genocide to the export of terrorism and destabilization. Isaias Afwerki is no longer merely domestic tyrant; he is now the enabler of an Iranian-led proxy war network stretching from Gaza to Mogadishu.
The international community cannot afford to ignore the strategic cost of inaction. The Red Sea must not become a theater of conflict controlled by rogue states and extremist militias.
The removal of the Eritrean regime is a moral and geopolitical necessity. Peace in the Horn of Africa—and the stability of global maritime corridors—depends on the end of Isaias Afwerki’s dictatorship. The time is now.
Prepared by the Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review (HAGR)With expert contributions from international intelligence analysts, regional security specialists,and exiled Eritrean pro-democracy leaders
