Urgent Need for Mediation to Prevent Escalation in Tigray
Unless a political resolution is reached imminently, the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) is expected to revoke the legal recognition of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) by 13 May 2025, effectively erasing the party as a legal entity under the current political framework.
Many observers and stakeholders hope that the sponsors of the Pretoria Agreement will intervene with a compromise proposal acceptable to both the federal government and the TPLF. However, as of now, there seems no indication of back-channel negotiations underway to avert what could become a deeply destabilizing political impasse.
The TPLF has consistently declared its refusal to register as a new political party, despite initially receiving a provisional certificate to convene its congress and proceed with registration under the amended party registration law. The core of the dispute lies in the TPLF’s insistence on the restoration of its pre-war legal and political status, a demand the federal government appears unwilling to accommodate.
More concerning, the TPLF leadership has hinted at pursuing alternative strategies to pressure the government; though it remains unclear what those strategies might involve. Speculation has intensified over potential tactical alliances with controversial actors such as Eritrean forces or Fano militias. Such an alignment would make regional security, civilian welfare, and inter-ethnic relations more dire.
There is a growing fear among many Tigrayans that the political ambitions of a few could once again turn Tigray into a battleground, this time as a proxy in a wider geopolitical confrontation involving Addis Ababa and Asmara [Eritrean government].
With a population already traumatized by war and division, the burden of another conflict would be unsustainable. A renewed cycle of violence risks not only repeating the horrors of recent years but destroying the prospects of recovery and reconciliation.
To avert the scary situation, there must be:
1) Urgent Diplomatic Engagement:
The sponsors of the Pretoria Agreement, including the African Union, European Union, and United States, must re-engage urgently to facilitate inclusive and transparent negotiations between the federal government and the TPLF leadership.
2) Territorial and Border Responsibilities:
The international community must call upon the federal government and its allied forces to withdraw from Tigray’s territories and allow the Tigray Interim Administration to assume civil authority. Furthermore, the federal government must take its responsibility of securing and monitoring Ethiopia’s international borders, especially with Eritrea, to prevent escalations.
3) Transparency and De-escalation:
Both parties must publicly clarify their positions and commit to a non-violent resolution of the registration dispute. Ambiguities fuel suspicion and increase the risk of unilateral and provocative actions.
4) Independent Mediation Mechanism:
An impartial, multi-stakeholder taskforce, including civil society, legal experts, and regional actors, should be formed to mediate the dispute. If negotiations fail, the matter should be brought before competent judicial or constitutional review mechanisms, or there must be such a try.
5) Prioritizing Civilian Safety and Democratic Transition:
All actors must prioritize the safety, dignity, and political agency of the people of Tigray. This includes ensuring full administrative and territorial sovereignty within the bounds of Ethiopia’s constitutional order, while facilitating pathways for democratic participation.
Finally, the people of Tigray deserve peace, justice, and full democratic representation, not another devastating war borne of power struggles among elites in Tigray, Addis Ababa, or Asmara [Eritrea].
