Mekelle, March 4፡2025 (Tigray Herald)
WHEN I THINK OF THE WORST CASE SCENARIO, I PRAY FOR ABIY TO STAY IN POWER
Written Yonas Biru(Phd)
The Abiy administration is decomposing in slow motion due largely to the economy. Oromo intellectuals both moderate led by the supposedly reformed Jaal Jawar, and extremists led by Jaal Maro of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) are preparing themselves to take the levers of power. Publicly, both Jaal Jawar and Jaal Maro state: “The only way forward is an all-inclusive national dialogue and a democratic power sharing arrangement.” Nonetheless, neither is prepared to reveal the roadmap for national dialogue or power sharing.
Jaal Jawar is on the record stating he has a manifesto and roadmap, but he is not prepared to share it. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that both Jaals want to keep power in Oromo hands. Though they accuse Abiy’s PP of being EPRDF 2.0, their aim is to replace it by EPRDF 3.0, not by a democratic power-sharing arrangement.
In like manner, the Fano enterprise refuses to reveal a roadmap for its professed but not disclosed democratic power-sharing modality. Eskinder’s Fano is the only one that revealed its manifesto. Its manifesto makes it clear that it will seek to build a broad coalition with non-Amhara forces only after Fano takes power. Another competing Fano manifesto that was prepared by a team led by Professor Demissie Manyelutal and Ambassador Berhane-Meskel Manewsemu aspires to take power and subsequently form a broad coalition with noon-Amhara forces. To his credit, the Fano faction led by Zemene Kassie is forthright in admitting publicly that Amhara must take the levers of power.
No reason to believe neither Amhara nor Oromo is prepared to agree on a truly democratic process. Both are fighting to win power through a non-democratic process, either by war (Fano and OLA) or by shenanigan (Jaal Jawar). What they are up to is different forms of EPRDF 3.0. EPRDF was better than EPRDF 2.0. No reason to believe EPRDF 3.0 will not be worse than EPRDF 2.0.
Sadly, Amhara and Oromo forces are at loggerheads in a self-destructive, if not utterly stupid, ኬኛ ideology. Assume the Abiy Administration collapsed on its own, following an economic collapse. Given the lack of cohesion within the military and the sub-mediocre military leaders Abiy has elevated to the top of the military hierarchy, coup d’etat is an unlikely outcome.
If the Abiy administration collapses, the nation risks two existential results. First, Fano and the OLA will march toward Arat Kilo from different directions. War, not dialogue, will determine who will take the levers of power. Second, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces will likely break into tribal factions. Amharas and anti-Oromo forces will join Fano. Oromos and anti-Amhara forces will side with the Oromo Liberation Army. The outcome will be a civil war that will make the war in Tigray that claimed over one million people look like child’s play. In terms of per capita, Oromo and Amhara must hold the Guinness world record in producing asinine intellectuals.
When I think of the Worst-Case Scenario, I Pray for Abiy to stay in power. I say this knowing full well that his pathological lies about the economy and his psychopathic political nature represent existential threat to Ethiopia. Nonetheless, I believe the potential civil war that can result from the competition to power between the demonstrably asinine hermitized Amhara and tribalized Oromo elites is worse.
