Mekelle፡Telaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London, (Tigray Herald)
The Collapse of Two Regimes in a Death Pact
Published by: The Tigray Herald & Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review (HAGR)
This strategic alliance between Asmara and the old-guard TPLF is not a masterstroke of
realpolitik—it is a death pact between two regimes drowning in historical crimes, corruption, and strategic irrelevance.
Isaias Afwerki is making the last gamble of a paranoid dictator—using another people’s land as his battlefield.
Desperate Calculations in a Geopolitical Trap:
Why Isaias Afwerki Is Rushing into an Unholy
Alliance with a Dying TPLF Dynasty
Prepared by: Horn of Africa Geopolitical Review (HAGR)
Contributors: Leading Regional and International Political, Security, and Military Intelligence Experts
Date: May 2025
Executive Summary
The emerging alliance between Eritrea’s authoritarian regime under President Isaias Afwerki and the decaying remnants of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is not a product of strategic wisdom—it is a desperate and reckless survival maneuver. Faced with existential threats, diminishing regional influence, and growing internal vulnerabilities, Isaias Afwerki has chosen to embrace a political corpse, hoping to delay the inevitable collapse of his own regime.
This document provides an in-depth strategic, political, and military intelligence analysis of this alliance. It highlights the geopolitical absurdity of Eritrea’s alignment with a TPLF faction in terminal decline, the tactical motivations behind Eritrea’s desire to create BAFOR (Battle Area Forward) zones within Tigray, and the illusory gains pursued by corrupt TPLF generals.
It concludes with strategic foresight, warning that this alliance is a mutual death pact—not a path to resilience, but an accelerant to collapse.
- The Geopolitical Desperation of Isaias Afwerki
Isaias Afwerki, once seen as a ruthless tactician capable of manipulating contradictions in the Horn of Africa, now reveals unprecedented vulnerability. His decision to ally with the very political force he demonized for decades—the Debretsion-led TPLF splinter faction—is born not of strategic strength, but of existential fear.
Existential Vulnerabilities and Strategic Depth Crisi
Eritrea’s lack of strategic depth—a critical military concept referring to the buffer space between frontlines and national heartlands—exposes it to catastrophic risk. The country’s narrow geographic profile leaves its industrial core, urban centers (Asmara, Massawa), and Red Sea corridor highly susceptible to retaliation, particularly from a restructured Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and a diplomatically resurgent Tigray Interim Government.
Military Insight: Without secure forward defensive zones (BAFORs) in Tigray and Afar, Eritrea’s military has no operational space to absorb or repel offensives. Isaias Afwerki fears this strategic nakedness more than any diplomatic isolation—and his response is to militarize foreign soil.
Diplomatic Encirclement and Strategic Paranoia
With Ethiopia’s federal government seeking stabilization, the Pretoria Peace Agreement gaining traction, and Tigray’s interim administration asserting autonomy, Eritrea faces a rapidly closing window to dictate regional outcomes. Isaias’s panic-driven pivot toward the TPLF splinter group is a last-ditch attempt to regain lost leverage by destabilizing Ethiopia from within.
- The TPLF’s Terminal Decline: Why Align with a Dying Force?
The Debretsion-led TPLF faction is not a partner in strength—it is a political cadaver, hollowed out by years of corruption, wartime atrocities, internal decay, and public rejection.
Structural Causes of Collapse
Legitimacy Deficit: TPLF’s refusal to acknowledge its wartime crimes or pursue national reconciliation has alienated large segments of the Tigrayan population.
Entrenched Nepotism: Power remains concentrated in the hands of aging loyalists, resistant to generational renewal or institutional reform.
Military Disunity: A visible divide exists between the corrupt, politicized “Above-the-Core” command and the emerging professional officer corps (“Below-the-Core”) in the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF).
Strategic Blindness: Entering into an alliance with the regime responsible for the Tigray
Genocide signals the total moral and ideological bankruptcy of TPLF’s old guard.
- Isaias Afwerki’s Strategic Calculation: Manufacturing BAFOR Zones in Tigray
Isaias’s grand strategy hinges on the creation of Battle Area Forward (BAFOR) zones within Tigray—particularly in border areas adjacent to Afar and northeastern Tigray. These militarized zones would serve dual objectives
A. Military Shielding of Eritrean Territory
Serve as a forward buffer to delay and deflect potential Ethiopian or Tigrayan military retaliation. Offer staging grounds for Eritrean forces under the guise of joint operations with rogue TPLF units.
B. Economic Exploitation and Illicit Patronage
Co-opt TPLF-linked military generals to secure access to Tigray’s gold and base metal
resources.
Sustain Eritrea’s sanctions-hit economy via black-market exports, enriching elite networks and funding the regime’s survival apparatus.
This strategy is not defensive; it is an act of geopolitical colonization—turning occupied Tigrayan territory into an expendable fortress.
- The TPLF’s Suicidal Gamble: What Do They Gain?
The TPLF splinter group’s motivations are rooted in short-term survival, personal gain, and a delusional sense of relevance:
A. Illusory Military Protection
TPLF leaders believe Eritrea’s remaining mechanized divisions will shield them from
accountability and internal purges—despite those same forces previously devastating Tigray.
B. Criminal Economies and Immunity
By enabling Eritrean-backed mining and cross-border smuggling operations, corrupt TPLF generals ensure a steady income stream and temporary immunity from justice mechanisms.
C. Temporary Political Leverage
Some within the TPLF seek to use Eritrean backing to negotiate from a position of perceived strength. But this is a fantasy; it only isolates them further from both Tigrayans and the international community.
- Strategic Risks and Regional Implications
Pretoria Agreement in Jeopard
The Eritrea-TPLF nexus could derail the fragile peace process between Tigray and Ethiopia,
provoking renewed conflict and undermining international mediation efforts.
Eritrea’s Diplomatic Isolation Deepens
This move reinforces Eritrea’s image as a spoiler state. The U.S., EU, AU, and Gulf actors are monitoring these destabilizing patterns closely—and may impose further punitive measures.
Security Fragmentation in Tigray
Eritrean intelligence-backed paramilitary elements and rogue TPLF militias risk plunging Tigray into a warlord-driven internal conflict, undermining reconstruction, peace, and justice.
Conclusion:
The Final Act of Authoritarian Decay
This is not an alliance—it is a death pact between two regimes consumed by fear, guilt, and irrelevance. Their mutual descent into desperation is laying the groundwork for future instability,not resilience.
Isaias Afwerki is gambling with foreign territory to defend his regime.
The Debretsion-led TPLF is clutching at dictatorship over dignity, submitting to the very force that tried to annihilate Tigray’s existence.
The Debretsion-led TPLF is selling out its people to its historical executioner.
Final Strategic Assessment
Eritrea’s regime is in terminal decline.
The TPLF splinter group is politically bankrupt.Their alliance is a geopolitical hallucination—dangerous, unsustainable, and suicidal.
Strategic Recommendations
To counter this threat and safeguard regional peace:
- Expose the Eritrea-TPLF Alliance diplomatically at AU, UN, and bilateral forums.
- Secure Tigray’s Borders against foreign infiltration and illicit paramilitary activity
- Launch Independent Investigations into war profiteering and gold smuggling networks involving both Eritrean and TPLF actors.
- Accelerate Political Reform in Tigray by empowering the “Below-the-Core” generation of
leaders and cleansing the state of warlord influence.
“History is not kind to those who betray their homeland for power. The Eritrean dictator and the decaying TPLF are not allies—they are co-conspirators in national destruction.”
