Mekelle፡Telaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London,March 24፡2025 (Tigray Herald)
The Peril of TDF Generals’ Decisions: A Path to Tigray’s Undoing
By Tekie Hagos
The recent decisions by senior TDF generals to side with the Debretsion-led TPLF are not just tactical errors; they are existential threats to Tigray’s survival. These actions have deepened internal divisions at a time when unity is crucial, creating an opening for Abiy Ahmed to assert greater control. With the internal fractures widening, the restructuring of the Interim Government is imminent—a move that will decisively shift the balance of power in Abiy’s favor and accelerate the erosion of Tigray’s autonomy.
Abiy’s Next Move: The Imminent Restructuring of the Interim Government
Abiy Ahmed is poised to capitalize on this moment of instability. In the coming weeks, the Interim Government will be reshuffled to install leaders who are either aligned with Addis Ababa or too weak to resist federal directives. This restructuring will mark the beginning of a systematic dismantling of Tigray’s political independence.
Key elements of this restructuring will likely include:
- The Removal of Pro-Tigray Figures: Leaders who have shown resistance to federal influence will be sidelined, replaced by those who are willing to collaborate with Addis Ababa.
- The Expansion of Federal Oversight: Abiy will introduce new mechanisms to ensure the Interim Government serves as an extension of the federal administration rather than a transitional body working toward Tigray’s self-governance.
- The Weakening of Local Institutions: Any entity capable of organizing meaningful resistance—whether political, military, or civil—will be systematically undermined, ensuring that Tigray remains dependent on federal authorities.
This restructuring is not about governance; it is about control. It is the final step in Abiy’s long-term plan to neutralize Tigray as a political and military force, ensuring that it remains permanently weakened.
The Type of War Abiy Will Wage: Remote, Economic, and Psychological Warfare
Instead of launching a full-scale military invasion, Abiy will continue to wage war through indirect but equally devastating means:
- Targeted Drone Strikes: Selective elimination of key figures and strategic assets to instill fear and prevent coordinated resistance.
- Economic Blockades: Further restrictions on banking services, electricity, and humanitarian aid to push Tigray into submission through deprivation.
- Psychological Warfare and Disinformation: A well-coordinated campaign on social media to deepen internal divisions, spread propaganda, and manipulate public perception within Tigray and the diaspora.
Eritrea’s Calculated Opportunism
For Isaias Afwerki, Tigray’s internal discord is an opportunity he has long awaited. The weakening of TDF and the restructuring of the Interim Government will allow him to advance his objectives without direct confrontation.
His likely moves include:
Ensuring that TDF remains fragmented and ineffective, preventing any resurgence of military strength.
Working diplomatically to block international intervention, ensuring that Tigray remains isolated.
Strengthening Eritrea’s military presence along the border, keeping Tigray vulnerable to future incursions.
Isaias does not need to launch a direct attack. He only needs to wait for Tigray to crumble from within—and current developments are pushing it in that direction.
The Way Out: Correcting Course Before It’s Too Late
The survival of Tigray depends on immediate corrective action:
- TDF Generals Must Reevaluate Their Loyalty: Their current path is weakening Tigray’s defenses. They must prioritize national survival over factional politics.
- Unity Above All Else: Every leader, faction, and community must put aside personal ambitions and focus on a singular goal—Tigray’s security and autonomy.
- Intensified Diplomatic and International Advocacy: The diaspora must act swiftly to expose Abiy’s tactics and mobilize global pressure to counter his actions.
- A Strategy for Self-Reliance and Resistance: Tigray must prepare for prolonged blockades, strengthening local governance, economic resilience, and strategic defense capabilities.
Conclusion: The Clock is Ticking
Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki are not making random moves; they are executing a carefully calculated strategy to bring Tigray under their full control. The restructuring of the Interim Government is not a possibility—it is a certainty. If Tigray’s leaders do not act decisively now, they will find themselves politically outmaneuvered, militarily weakened, and economically strangled.
Tigray cannot afford indecision. The only path forward is one of unity, strategic foresight, and unwavering resistance. Anything less will lead to irreversible consequences—the complete disintegration of Tigray as a political and military entity.
