Mekelle፡Telaviv, Nairobi, Pretoria, London,March 16፡2025 (Tigray Herald)
Tigray at a Crossroads: Political Fragmentation, Military Escalation, and the Urgent Need for Mediation
By Batseba Seifu
A Deepening Crisis with Devastating Consequences for the People of Tigray
The political and military crisis in Tigray is intensifying, driven by internal divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and an escalating power struggle between its key factions. What began as a fragile post-war transition has now devolved into violent confrontations, military realignments, and allegations of a coup. At the heart of this crisis is the battle for control between TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael and the military and the interim regional administrator Getachew Reda and his supporters. This power struggle is not only a dispute over leadership—it is a defining moment for the future of Tigray.
As political maneuvering intensifies, external actors, including Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean interests, have further complicated the situation. The people of Tigray remain trapped in the crossfire, suffering from targeted attacks, arbitrary arrests, and renewed instability. If left unchecked, this crisis could reignite full-scale war, pushing the region into further chaos. Immediate international mediation and the establishment of an inclusive interim government are critical to preventing further deterioration.
The Origins of the Power Struggle
The current crisis can be traced back to the formation of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration following the Pretoria Agreement, which aimed to bring an end to the genocidal war waged against Tigray. After the genocidal war, the TPLF initially sought to install Debretsion Gebremichael as the leader of the interim administration. However, Abiy Ahmed swiftly rejected this nomination, forcing the party to choose another candidate.
Getachew Reda, who had served as the TPLF’s spokesperson during the genocidal war, was eventually nominated and approved. However, his selection was met with resistance from the TPLF’s old guard, who viewed him as an outsider who might not fully align with the party’s strategic interests. Some sources suggest that the TPLF leadership initially sought to control Getachew while allowing him to hold the title of interim president. However, tensions escalated when Getachew asserted his independence.
Adding to the crisis, the legitimacy of the interim administration was widely questioned due to its composition. While it was meant to represent all of Tigray, it was dominated by a 50+1 TPLF majority, excluding other political stakeholders. This lack of inclusivity deepened divisions and laid the groundwork for the internal conflict that has now erupted.
Military Divisions and Allegations of a Coup
The political turmoil soon extended into the military. Military forces later aligned with Debretsion’s faction began asserting control, leading to further instability. The situation worsened when Getachew Reda dismissed several senior military officials, including Major General Yohannes Woldegiyorgis, Major General Masho Beyene, and Brigadier General Migbey Haile. The Tigray Peace and Security Bureau rejected these suspensions, arguing that they did not follow institutional procedures and were instead a move to consolidate Getachew’s control over the military.
The TPLF leadership condemned the dismissals as illegal and dangerous, warning. Meanwhile, Getachew accused high-ranking military officers of plotting a coup against his administration. Military units loyal to Debretsion had been mobilizing troops to dismantle the interim administration. Report suggest that armed groups aligned with Debretsion’s faction have engaged in targeted arrests and human rights violations, terrorizing civilians under the pretext of restoring order.
The Seizure of Adigudom and Civilian Suffering
The power struggle turned deadly when military units loyal to Debretsion’s faction took control of several areas, including the town of Adigudom. Fighters from the Tigray Defense Forces’ 44th and 26th divisions stormed the town, seized government offices, and kidnapped the mayor and eight cabinet members. Residents reported being hunted in their homes, arrested, and subjected to violence.
Eyewitness accounts paint a grim picture of the attack. One resident described the moment he saw a man gunned down near his house, according to BBC.
“The shooting took place near our house. First, I saw a man falling from a bullet. I approached him, saying, ‘Oh, man, he is dead.’ The young man was shot in the chest.”
Another survivor, who barely escaped an attack, recalled:
“Five of us were shot. I was shot over the knee with a clash. They then hit me repeatedly with sticks when I fell. I am in severe pain now.”
Despite attempts by residents to protest against the violence, the demonstrations were quickly suppressed. Reports indicate that civilian casualties were inflicted during the military takeover, raising fears of escalating war crimes.
Getachew Reda’s Plea for Federal Intervention and Self-Criticism
As the violence escalated, Getachew Reda, went to Addis Ababa. Speaking from Addis Ababa, he called on the Ethiopian federal government to intervene. He argued that Debretsion’s faction was actively working to dismantle the Pretoria Agreement and urged Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party to take action.
Further, during a media briefing in Addis Ababa, Getachew made a controversial move. Instead of rightly holding Abiy Ahmed accountable as the main obstacle to the implementation of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA), he engaged in self-criticism, deflecting blame onto his comrades within the TPLF. This statement absolved Abiy of any wrongdoing, showing that Getachew may be prioritizing political survival. His remarks have fueled speculation that he may be seeking favor from Abiy to maintain his position in the interim government instead of aligning with the interests of Tigray.
Abiy Ahmed’s silence on the crisis suggests that he sees the division within the TPLF as beneficial to his broader political strategy. By allowing the factional conflict to persist, he weakens Tigray as a united opposition force, making it easier to maintain federal control without direct intervention. Eritrea, which played a key role in the genocidal war against Tigray, also stands to gain from a divided Tigray, as a fragmented leadership poses less of a challenge to Eritrean influence in the region.
A Path Forward: International Mediation and Inclusive Governance
The escalating crisis in Tigray demands immediate international intervention. The African Union, United Nations, European Union, and Western powers must step in to mediate negotiations between rival factions as well as the military. Without external mediation, the risk of renewed large-scale conflict remains dangerously high.
To achieve stability, a new, truly inclusive interim government must be established, one that represents all parties, civil society, and marginalized voices within Tigray must be established as part of the mediation process. The current administration’s non-inclusive nature with 50+1 consisting of the TPLF has only fuelled division and proved that it cannot govern effectively. Mediation efforts must also include mechanisms to prevent external actors, including Abiy Ahmed’s administration and Eritrean interests, from exploiting the crisis for political gain or control over Tigray. In this regard, the Abiy Administration must not have a say in the leadership or composition of the Tigray Interim Administration.
Additionally, confidence-building measures must be implemented to de-escalate tensions. A mutual commitment to cease statements filled with hostilities, end political repression, and engage in constructive dialogue is necessary for any long-term resolution. Without trust, no peace process will succeed.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment for Tigray’s Future
Tigray stands at a critical juncture. The decisions made in the coming weeks will determine whether the region moves toward reconciliation or falls back into war. Political and military leaders must recognize that their power struggles are devastating the very people they claim to represent. The international community must act swiftly to mediate a resolution, and Tigray’s leadership must embrace inclusivity, accountability, and a commitment to peace. If Tigray is to have a future, it must be built on unity, not division.
