Mekelle፡ 30 September 2024 (Tigray Herald)
By Batseba Seifu
The Quest for Tigray’s Independence amidst Ethiopia’s Collapse under Abiy Ahmed
Over the course of the last years, the political trajectory of Ethiopia under the leadership of Abiy Ahmed has assumed an increasingly dangerous and destabilizing direction. Abiy, once hailed as a reformist leader and peacemaker by majority of Ethiopians and the International Community proved himself a war monger whose ambitions seemed steered not by economic considerations nor the well-being of the nation, but through a desire for power, prestige, and distraction from internal failures. The repercussions of his frivolous policies managed to engulf the nation in chaos, alienating Ethiopia from its neighbors and setting it up for regional conflict. From the Tigrayan perspective adding the genocidal war against us to the above, Tigray’s path—must be different from this dangerous course. Abiy’s behavior through the genocidal war has made crystal clear that the future of Tigray lies in independence and self-determination. The time is now ripe.
Abiy Ahmed’s Aggression and the Quest for a Red Sea Port
The basis of Abiy’s warmongering has been his obsession with gaining access to the Red Sea. This ambition is definitely not propelled by pure economic concerns but by external pressures and his ambition to be seen as the “King” who “restored” Ethiopia’s access to the sea despite past regimes. It is no secret that the United Arab Emirates yields a great deal of influence over Ethiopia’s foreign policy considering its destructive work in the Horn of Africa and its support in the genocidal war on Tigray. Abiy’s MoU with Somaliland—a self-declared autonomous region seeking recognition as an independent state—had the motives of not simply aiding Somaliland in its goals of independence but to use the region for its ports and geopolitical leveraging.
This aggressive posture has already pitted Ethiopia against its neighbours Eritrea and Somalia. Eritrea-which eagerly participated in the genocidal war against Tigray-is now facing Abiy’s attempt to assert claims over the Red Sea, if need be by force. Asmara is unlikely to stand idly by. Somalia, for its part, has also opposed Abiy’s dealings with Somaliland.
Another flashpoint of regional tension is represented by the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, a project initiated under the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. Whereas Meles pursued the dam project with a strategic balance of diplomacy and legal consideration, Abiy has been less measured. Complete disregard for international norms and insistence on forging ahead before a comprehensive agreement with the downstream countries, especially Egypt, had reached further escalated tensions. Egypt relies on the Nile for nearly all of its freshwater and views this dam as an existential threat; its firm opposition to the actions of Ethiopia is well known.
Though the dam project was inherited, Abiy’s management of it has alienated Egypt and further isolated Ethiopia internationally. Egypt’s increasingly close alliances with Somalia and Eritrea are part of a regional realignment against Ethiopia. Abiy’s seeming inability or unwillingness to navigate these complex diplomatic waters suggests a leader more concerned with deflecting attention from his domestic failings than in securing long-term peace and stability for his country.
Internal Instability: The Price of Military Adventure
Domestically, the country is in turmoil. The 2020 genocidal war against Tigray has laid the region to waste and precipitated one of the worst humanitarian crises that Africa has seen in recent times. Other than this genocidal war in Tigray, Abiy’s government also faces an armed backlash from the Oromo Liberation Army, commonly called OLA, and the Fano militia-an Amhara paramilitary force. All of these military campaigns have taken their toll, with runaway inflation and recent international pressure to liberalize the economy of Ethiopia, and they all seem to push the country toward complete collapse.
Abiy’s focus on military and aesthetic projects at the expense of Ethiopians-who face prices, unemployment, and the shortages of basic goods-has cost him his popularity among the population. The centralization of the Prosperity Party has further polarized the different ethnic groups of Ethiopia in an effort to bring it all under one command in Addis Ababa. In essence, he has lost control of the periphery. For the people of Tigray-who have borne the brunt of Abiy’s genocidal war-the question is no longer whether Ethiopia can be saved but whether Tigray should remain part of a failing empire.
Ethiopia’s Neighbors Turn Against Abiy
The rate at which Ethiopia is being diplomatically isolated is now very visible. Eritrea, an otherwise ally of the Abiy government in committing genocide against Tigray, increasingly identifies with Egypt and Somalia. The bilateral security agreement signed between Somalia and Egypt against a background of escalating tensions over the GERD and the Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland marked a new phase in the regional power game. Meanwhile, that makes Ethiopia’s position worse, and with Eritrea increasingly cozying up to them, the prospect of a united front against Addis Ababa more feasible.
The international community has started to shun Abiy as well. The UAE is still a premier supporter of his regime, but there is only so much even such a powerful ally can do in the face of mushrooming instability. The European Union-the largest trading partner with Ethiopia in the Horn-is increasingly wary of Abiy’s authoritarian streak and the humanitarian crisis in Tigray. The United States has refused to reinstate the AGOA. Continued internal conflict and economic mismanagement will continue to isolate Ethiopia, with disastrous results for its citizens.
The BRICS
Ethiopia-China Relations: From Strategic Partnership to Strained Engagement
China has been the most influential BRICS partner for Ethiopia in areas such as infrastructure and industrial development. The late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi utilized China’s BRI for loans and investments in building railways, industrial parks, and power plants during his tenure; projects that had been expected to feed the ambitions of Ethiopia to become the manufacturing hub of Africa. China also invested in the Ethiopian telecommunications, energy, and transport sectors-a country it saw as a vital link in the BRI African corridor.
Under the leadership of Abiy Ahmed, however, relations between Ethiopia and China went cold. General conflicts and especially the very brutal genocidal war in Tigray have terribly disrupted economic activities and seriously diminished the appeal for Ethiopian destinations for investment.
China is more suspicious now about extending further financial support to Ethiopia, concerned with economic return and stability in its partnerships. Amidst an increasing debt burden, coupled with an ever-degenerating security environment, questions rise on whether Addis Ababa would be able or willing to pay its loans, let alone maintaining Chinese-backed infrastructure. Consider the Addis Ababa Light Rail-one of the solutions to the challenges that beset Ethiopia-to my memory, it has stopped working. These aspects could easily see China pivot attention to more stable African partners, with Ethiopia losing its most significant BRICS ally.
Ethiopia-Russia Relations: Military-Centric with Little Economic Value
Unlike the relations between China and Ethiopia, those of Ethiopia and Russia have been informed by military and political considerations rather than economic ones. Russia has managed to keep a foot in the door in Ethiopia through armament deals and military assistance since the Cold War. During the Derg era, Ethiopian dependence on Soviet military assistance was overwhelming; even that legacy continued with Abiy Ahmed’s effort to seek Russian arms and supplies during the genocidal war in Tigray.
This military alliance, for its part, is not particularly paying off in terms of economic development and diplomatic prestige. While Russia continues to be a supplier of military hardware, the preoccupation of Ethiopia with military solutions for internal conflicts rather than a focus on development and governance bars deeper economic relations with Russia.
In addition, given the geopolitical priorities of Russia-the war in Ukraine-and its influence in other regions of Africa, its limited political will naturally impinge upon Ethiopia to extend non-existent and considerable economic or political resources. Technological or financial cooperation, are nil in this bilateral relationship.
Ethiopia-India Relations: An Unstable Fading Economic Partnership
Traditionally, the relations between Ethiopia and India have been mutual in nature and focused on trade, education, and technological cooperation. Ethiopia being among the largest trading partners in Africa with investments in agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and education. The Indian businesses have played a major role in economic development for Ethiopia through skills development and joint ventures in the manufacturing and industry sectors.
However, under Abiy’s rule, things have deteriorated. Political instability-from ethnic conflicts to genocidal war in Tigray-saw Indian businesses scale back their operations. The Government of Ethiopia diverted attention away from sectors like education and healthcare, where India has been a very important partner. Displacement of millions by war disrupted agricultural production, where Indian firms had invested in the past. This has meant a decline in trade and investor confidence.
Their presence in East Africa is, of course, growing in number but cautiously in Ethiopia. The failure of the Ethiopian economy and loss of government control over large parts of the country shifted India’s focus to other African countries like Kenya and Tanzania, where it is more stable. Thus, Ethiopia loses out on an important BRICS partner in so far as its technological and economic development is concerned.
Ethiopia – Brazil
Of all the BRICS, the relationship between Brazil and Ethiopia is almost non-existent. Brazilian foreign policy in Africa has sought out the friendship of the Lusophone countries, and it had very little action in Ethiopia. Trade is small between the two, and Brazil has invested little in Ethiopian development. The internal conflicts within the state of Ethiopia, along with its generally worsening security situation, make it all the more doubtful that Brazil will increase its presence in Ethiopia anytime soon.
Other areas of interest in pursuing regional expansion included agricultural technologies and energy partnerships; however, the unstable government system in place in Ethiopia is unattractive for Brazilian business investment. Besides, economic turmoil in Brazil under successive leaderships has constrained the pursuit of ambitious foreign policy objectives in Africa. These are factors that mean stagnation for the current relationships between Ethiopia and Brazil, with no hope for improvements any time soon under the present leadership.
I already wrote of the new members – Eritrea and Egypt – a war in the making. While the relations with key BRICS members-China, India, Russia, Brazil, Egypt, Eritrea-either stagnated or deteriorated, the Ethiopian potential of being a regional power is poor. To that extent, isolation within BRICS may well continue to constitute Ethiopia’s position, and nothing is going to change.
In principle, membership of the BRICS bloc should have availed the country more elbowroom toward economic development, greater diplomatic leverage, and strategic positioning outside of the traditional Western alliances. But the leadership in Addis Ababa has been stuck with collapsed state machinery and unable to use that room.
Whereas BRICS does promise a multilateral platform to emerging economies for cooperation, the government of Ethiopia, under the Abiy regime, has been treading a path which increasingly drifts away from such an opportunity. Abiy’s administration has taken an orientation toward militaristic ways of governance and genocide; it compromised economic stability and diplomatic credibility that highly weakened the potential of the country as a partner with the BRICS countries. This could have been a sufficient response, but in order to understand the stagnation and indeed isolation of Ethiopia within the BRICS framework, its relations with some members of BRICS needs to be considered along with greater implications arising from such interactions.
Why Being Part of Ethiopia Won’t Save Tigray from its Humanitarian Crisis
One of the horrific consequences of the genocidal war and ongoing atrocities on Tigray is the disastrous humanitarian crisis. Hundreds of thousands have lost their lives. Millions were displaced. Women, girls, boys and men faced the horrors of weaponized rape. Millions were starved deliberately. Cultural artifacts were stolen and pillaged. Ethiopians engaged in propaganda to “wipe out Tigrayans.”
The Government of Ethiopia, Eritrean forces, other international actors, Amhara militias and Ethiopia’s regional forces committed or abetted this genocide. The cease-fire agreement signed in Pretoria in November 2022 brought the gun fires to a halt, but the humanitarian situation in Tigray remains catastrophic. Despite constituting part of Ethiopia, famine, underdevelopment, displacement, and insecurity remain rampant in Tigray. The administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed aggravated this crisis instead of addressing it.
In fact, in view of the long history of marginalization and mistreatment, the central government has always done harm to Tigray’s recovery and safety. These are the grounds-a humanitarian, political, and economic reality-that indicate how there can be more harm than hope for Tigray due to its continued integration into the Ethiopia state.
Humanitarian Needs
The government of Ethiopia did little to reduce the humanitarian disaster in Tigray, where millions were left in the worst state since the ceasefire. International organizations, international media and humanitarians warned that millions in Tigray continued to stand on the brink of starvation. Nine months of stalled delivery in 2023 furthered the food insecurity of the region. There was already famine due to the systematic use of starvation as a weapon of war. While deliveries did resume in 2024, the scale and pace of assistance remains nowhere near adequate. Meanwhile, the Ethiopian government received billions of humanitarian aid from the international community.
The United Nations and other international relief agencies face challenges to address those most hungry and displaced. The great swaths of Tigray- areas forcefully and illegally occupied by Amhara and Eritrean forces -continue to be blocked from the lifesaving aid. Once key agricultural areas largely turned into a no-man’s land, with Tigrayans being forced to flee their homelands in no position to return and farm their lands. The Government of Ethiopia, reluctant to restore normalcy in Tigray, made this worse. It failed to restore the territorial integrity of Tigray to status quo ante as stipulated by the Pretoria Agreement, in fact entertaining the idea of referendum when hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans are displaced.
Negligence of humanitarian needs in Tigray by the Ethiopian government, even politicizing call for help from the regional administration and forcing the politicization of aid by UN agencies such as the UNOCHA is a continuity in genocidal patterns. Even before this war and change of regime, Tigrayans were relegated to the periphery regarding national development policies. However, this marginalization has been made worse under Abiy Ahmed’s watch as his government pursues policies that intentionally marginalize Tigray.
Systematic Discrimination and Blockades
One of the major reasons why being a part of Ethiopia could not save Tigray is the genocidal war. Arbitrary arrests, mass detentions, and violence simply because of one’s ethnicity were common against Tigrayans throughout the country. This, of course, makes it plain that to the Ethiopian government, Tigrayans are not part of a state entitled to equal protection and rights. Indeed, the Ethiopian government systematically persecuted, killed, starved, raped Tigrayans. It treated Tigrayans as enemies simply based on our identity, far from citizens.
This has been further sealed by the blockade of Tigray for much of the genocidal war, where the Ethiopian government cut off communications, electricity, banking, and access to humanitarian aid as an integral part of a deliberate strategy of weakening and destroying Tigrayans. The reopening of such services, while promised in the Pretoria agreement, has been painfully slow and incomplete. While most of those services have begun, not all services are available in all of the region up to date. This hampered the recovery efforts and re-connection of Tigray with the rest of the world.
The blockade was not only a military strategy but a collective punishment, a move to debilitate economic vitality and civilian life. Media propaganda to take Tigray back a 100 years are evidence of this intent. That such a move could be contemplated by the government in Ethiopia is ample evidence that it is not designed to protect or support Tigray. It has instead shown a disturbing willingness to destroy Tigrayan lives and well being.
Territorial Integrity
After the genocidal war broke out, Amhara and Eritrean forces forcibly and illegally took over most Tigray, displacing millions of Tigrayans amid widespread human rights abuses. Those areas remain under their control, and the Ethiopian government has failed to implement the Pretoria Agreement and the subsequent Nairobi Declaration to restore territorial integrity. Rather, it has referenced referendum in the Amhara region even when hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans are displaced.
This occupation provides the fuse threatening to blow any hope of lasting peace in Tigray. Reluctance by the government of Ethiopia to restore Tigray’s territorial integrity is a clear proof of the unwillingness of the Ethiopian State to protect Tigrayans’ rights to land, property, and self-government. As part of Ethiopia, the more will the people of Tigray be exposed to continued insecurity and displacements, worsening our humanitarian crisis.
Lack of Justice
The Ethiopian government utterly failed to make any authentic effort toward justice. it has denied the atrocities committed by its forces and those of its allies. How could it admit? It was an actor.
Whereas the Pretoria agreement called for a transitional justice process to address those crimes, little progress is being made toward accountability and justice. Successful lobbying by the Ethiopian government resulted in an end to the U.N. probe into human rights violations in Tigray. It instead offered a national reconciliation process that many criticize as grossly lacking and biased. This lack of accountability causes further injustice.
There will be no durable peace in Tigray without justice and accountability. Crystal clear was the signal that was given: a lack of any transparent, fair process for justice by the Ethiopian government, there was no basis to expect this actor to value the rights and lives of Tigrayans. Without justice, the wounds of war will continue to fester, and no meaningful recovery can take place.
Economic Marginalization
The economic future of Tigray as part of Ethiopia shows the same signs. The war has reduced the already poorly developed infrastructure, economy, and agriculture of the region to rubbles. It left millions literally without work or livelihoods. During the destruction of the genocidal war, factories, schools, hospitals, and farms were purposefully burnt to ashes. The economy is not yet revived, and the Government of Ethiopia gave very little toward reconstruction funds or development assistance that could help Tigray get on its feet. Further, many civil servants have not been paid to date.
Tigray was already excluded from national development plans of Ethiopia, but the genocidal war widened that gap. Such neglect by the Government of Ethiopia is only further proof that being part of the Ethiopian state is not going to guarantee the prosperity and/or recovery of Tigray. Tigray has become even more remote and had to rebuild on its own with little assistance from a center which continued in large measure to direct resources elsewhere.
Role of Eritrean Forces and External Threats
Finally, there is no guarantee that the incorporation of Tigray into Ethiopia will guarantee security against the outside world, at least not from Eritrea. Eritrean forces played a major role in the genocidal war on Tigray. The Pretoria agreement failed to ensure the withdrawal of Eritrean troops from Tigray where they continue to commit atrocities against Tigrayan civilians.
Meanwhile, the Government of Ethiopia has shown little interest in removing the Eritrean forces. It even referred to the Algiers Agreement in support of the forcefully and illegally occupying forces. It should be noted that they have pushed further beyond the so-called Agreement and the Algiers Agreement has its inherent failures which I wrote of elsewhere. The lingering presence of Eritrean forces represents the Ethiopian states’ unwillingness to protect Tigray against aggression.
Being part of Ethiopia ushered in neither security nor development nor recovery. It instead plunged Tigray deep into the throes of neglect and marginalization, coupled with genocide. Meaningful change has yet to come in and I would not count on it. This is argument enough for the right to self-determination towards free Tigray without oppression by a state that has never protected or served us.
Thus, The Case for Tigrayan Independence
The clearest lessons in recent years are that the Ethiopian empire is unsustainable and continued association with it will only bring additional suffering to Tigray. The Tigrayan people, who have been made to suffer under genocide, famine, and displacement, must chart a new course. Independence is not only the wisest choice but the only viable one for the survival and prosperity of Tigray.
The Ethiopia that exists today is a contrived contraption – an amalgamation of nations, nationalities, and peoples held together by imperial conquest and maintained through decades of autocratic rule. A unified Ethiopian state has always been just that – a dream. In real terms, the empire of Ethiopia has represented a prison for the various peoples who live within its borders, from the Oromo to the Sidama to the Tigrayans.
The exploitation of Tigray’s resources by the central government and the latter’s efforts at erasing Tigray’s unique culture and history have driven the point home that the Tigrayan people will have absolutely nothing to gain by being in Ethiopia.
It is Tigray that has a resource and historical basis on which to establish a proud and prosperous independent state. As Alemseged Abbay, PhD termed it – the “primordial preconditions” of statehood-history of ancient civilization, language, culture, resistance -make Tigray a natural candidate for independence. Free from the clutches of the Ethiopian empire, Tigray would control its own resources, preserve its heritage, and find a way to go its own way in the world.
Nationalism in Tigray
Nationalism is a powerful and often emotional force that binds a people together through shared identity, history, culture, and sometimes, resistance. It is not a static idea but one that is built and reinforced over time through collective experience. We could possibily construct or reconstruct a route to nationalism in Tigray.
- Historical Foundations of Tigrayan Identity
A core component of nationalism is a shared history that binds a people together. For Tigrayans, our sense of nationhood is deeply rooted in the region’s historical significance. Tigray was home to the Aksumite Empire, one of the greatest ancient civilizations in Africa, is home of Emperor Yohannes, and Ras Alula.
Tigrayans today see ourselves as heirs to this legacy, linking our modern identity with historical achievements or we should. This historical pride creates (or should create) a strong sense of continuity and reinforces the distinctiveness of Tigray. Tigray has always been at the heart of Ethiopian civilization.
- Culture and Language: Anchors of Tigrayan Nationalism
Culture and language are the living expressions of a nation’s identity. In Tigray, the Tigrinya language and being home and the first champions of both Christianity and Islam faiths are integral to the formation of Tigrayan nationalism. Language, particularly, is a powerful tool in nation-building because it not only facilitates communication but also transmits cultural values, historical knowledge, and national symbols.
Tigrayans, we have long maintained our distinct cultural practices despite attempts at assimilation by the Ethiopian state and by Amharanization. Traditional music, religious festivals, and centuries-old literature written in Ge’ez (the ancient liturgical language of even the Ethiopian Orthodox Church) are essential in preserving a collective identity. These cultural elements form the fabric of Tigrayan nationalism. Kudos to the formation of separate, Tigrayan religious institutions.
- Genocide, Resistance, and the Rise of Modern Tigrayan Nationalism
War has always played a significant role in the construction of nationalism, and Tigray is no exception. The genocidal war, which began in November 2020 between Tigray and the Ethiopian federal and regional forces as well as international forces, to name one – Eritrean forces, has deeply intensified Tigrayan nationalism. Facing what we perceive as an existential threat, Tigrayans have come together with a renewed sense of identity and solidarity.
The atrocities committed against civilians in Tigray—including massacres, weaponized rape,, and the deliberate starvation of the population—have galvanized nationalist feelings. These brutal realities have not only sharpened the division between Tigray and the Ethiopian state but have also reinforced the idea that Tigray’s survival depends on unity and resistance. Tigrayans increasingly view our fight as one for sovereignty and survival, positioning Tigray as a nation within a state, separate from the Ethiopian project.
- Memory and Martyrdom: Reinforcing Tigrayan Nationalism
Nationalism thrives on collective memory, particularly the memory of past struggles and sacrifices. For Tigrayans, the memory of martyrs who died in the fight against the Derg, and more recently in the genocidal war against Ethiopian and Eritrean forces (again amongst other international forces), plays a crucial role in shaping contemporary nationalism. Tigrayans see ourselves as descendants of a long line of fighters who have stood up against external oppression.
Memorialization of these figures and the collective trauma experienced in the current genocidal war have intensified nationalist fervor. This sense of martyrdom is deeply embedded in Tigrayan society, reinforcing the idea that our people have long been fighting for justice and autonomy.
- The Role of Media in Shaping Tigrayan Nationalism
In the modern era, media and communication play an increasingly important role in the construction of nationalism. Social media platforms have allowed Tigrayans both within the region and in the diaspora to tell our own stories, share our suffering, and amplify our calls for international solidarity. The power of digital platforms in fostering a shared narrative cannot be underestimated, as they connect Tigrayans across borders and foster a unified voice for Tigray’s cause.
Furthermore, the international media’s coverage of the humanitarian crisis in Tigray has put the region’s plight on the global stage, albeit inadequately. This external recognition has to a certain extent validated Tigrayan nationalist narratives of victimization, resilience, and resistance against Ethiopian and Eritrean aggression.
- Nationalism as a Force for Survival and Autonomy
The culmination of Tigrayan nationalism is the desire for self-determination and autonomy. While the TPLF previously supported a federalist system within Ethiopia, the ongoing war has led to increasing calls for full independence from Ethiopia. In fact, the TPLF mobilized based on independence during its fight against the Derg only to later liberate the whole of Ethiopia. The genocidal war has made many Tigrayans question whether coexistence within a multi-ethnic Ethiopian state is feasible, particularly given the deep scars of the genocide.
This shift reflects the fact that nationalism, once constructed, can evolve in response to changing political realities. As the occupation and the atrocities continue, Tigrayan nationalism should take on a sharper tone, focused on survival and the pursuit of an independent Tigrayan state that would protect our culture, history, and future from external threats.
Nationalism is built through a complex interplay of history, culture, political struggle, and collective memory. In Tigray, these elements have coalesced to create a strong sense of identity that has been further reinforced by recent genocidal war and suffering. Tigray’s nationalism is not just a response to current events but is deeply rooted in our history, cultural distinctiveness, and political struggles for autonomy. As the Tigray genocide evolves, so too should the nationalism that binds our people together— towards a future where Tigray seeks full sovereignty and recognition as a nation in its own right.
TPLF: Internal Battles and the Future of Tigrayan Nationalism
The road to independence is not without its challenges for Tigray. The TPLF, once spearheading the struggle against the Derg regime is disunited. Its original Marxist-Leninist roots have rendered the TPLF basically hostile to nationalist sentiments for a long period of time. For many in the rank and file of the TDF, especially during the genocidal war, independence was basically the highest possible aspiration. So was the TPLF’s mobilization strategy during the struggle against the Derg. However, TPLF leadership remained relentless in strict adherence to ideological class struggle over national liberation. Even in the so-called reformist Tigray Interim Regional Administration, the emphasis remains lacking on Tigray’s right to self-determination.
If Tigray is ever to be independent, it needs leadership ready and willing to wear the mantel of nationalism and put the interests of the Tigrayan people above everything else. During its Addis Ababa years, the leadership of TPLF seemed more committed to holding together the Ethiopian state than securing a decent future for Tigray. It is this void in nationalist leadership that needs to be filled if Tigray were to ever free itself from Ethiopia, with a view to establishing an independent, prosperous state.
Conclusion: A New Era for Tigray
The implosion of the Ethiopian empire is a fact. Under Abiy Ahmed’s careless leadership, Ethiopia became a failed state-economically weakened, diplomatically isolated, and internally divided. It is in this crisis that now afflicts the whole country that Tigray must see as an opportunity for its liberation from the suffocating centralism of the Ethiopian state and to forge another future of self-determination. But, it needs leaders to do so.
Way Forward: Why Tigray Needs Elites to Chart Its Future Course
After the ceasefire and as Tigray looks toward its future, one thing becomes increasingly clear: the future of Tigray cannot be relegated to chance. It needs conscious, calculated, intellectual leadership-most especially from its elites, who hold experience, knowledge, and expertise in the direction and rebuilding of Tigray into a new era.
Historical and Cultural Continuity: Anchoring the Future in a Proud Past
The elites of Tigray bear paramount responsibility in the protection of heritage left from the genocidal war as well as from history and culture, as it is crucial for our identity.
In the aftermath of genocidal war, elites who have an intimate knowledge of the history will contribute to the preservation of the cultural identity of Tigray amidst destruction. Historical sites, churches, mosques and monasteries form the building blocks of Tigrayan culture. Targeting such sites symbolize an attack not only on the present but also on the past. These sites should be documented by Tigrayan elites, among them historians, cultural leaders, and intellectuals, so that restoration can be carried out with the aim of keeping future generations in close contact with their heritage. More importantly, the issue of preserving history is not only of physical structures but involves upholding the values of resilience, independence, and leadership that have traditionally defined the Tigrayan people. These values are crucial as Tigray navigates a path forward, and it is the duty of our intellectual and cultural elites to instill this sense of continuity and purpose in the younger generations.
Strategic Political Leadership: Navigating the Complexities of Power and Diplomacy
Tigray has always managed to survive in the most unlikely of political conditions through strong political leadership. In that respect, it is about time Tigray’s elites came to the fore to take up the challenge in one of the most dangerous political times. It is in this context that Tigray requires strategic political thinkers who will be able to negotiate both internal and external dynamics to guarantee a stable and prosperous future. To this effect, internally, Tigray’s elites are faced with the dire need to politically unite themselves, coupled with governance reform.
The genocidal war has deeply fragmented the region, with different factions vying for power in the post-war period. The task is to make this genocidal-war-torn region politically unified, and the political elite needs to work to prevent Tigray’s recovery from being derailed by infighting. In fact, it is time to see leaders emerge above this factionalism to the pursuit of inclusive governance models that incorporate diverse voices and perspectives within Tigrayan society.
The elites are also needed in the position of the region within the wider geopolitical landscape. The Horn of Africa is a strategic interest of both regional players and global powers. Tigray’s elites must be fully engaged with key international actors through diplomatic means, such as the United States, the European Union, China, and the Gulf states, in order to garner support for reconstruction, humanitarian assistance, and long-term development.
Additionally, elites must be at the forefront of advocating for justice and accountability in the most visible international arenas. We are victims of genocide-it must not go unseen or forgotten. The Tigrayan elites, especially in the diaspora, are particularly well-positioned to spearhead such efforts for investigation globally, sanctions, and legal accountability through international bodies.
Economic Recovery and Development: Paving the Way for Sustainable Growth
The genocidal war in Tigray brought unprecedented economic devastation in human history. Agricultural production-an intensely crucial sector of the regional economy-was destroyed. All factories, infrastructures, and key industries were looted or destroyed. Consequently, poverty, unemployment, and food insecurity skyrocketed to unparalleled levels, placing millions of Tigrayans in the grip of starvation and displacement. Thus, knowledge and leadership from the economic and business elites of the region are greatly needed for the rebuilding of the economy of Tigray.
The economic recovery of Tigray will be long and multilayered. It is now time for the elites, who studied economics, development, and entrepreneurship, to come forward and provide an overall economic plan, be it for short-run needs or long-term development trajectory. In the short run, humanitarian relief and food security will be paramount, along with restoring basic services like healthcare, education, and infrastructure. But more than that, what the elites of Tigray need to work on is an economic model for resilience and self-sufficiency.
And one of the most important areas of concentration should deal with agriculture. The genocidal war in Tigray has disrupted farming activities very badly; further the western and southern regions being one of the most fertile lands in history, allowing millions of people to make a living off it, is under illegal and forceful occupation by Amhara Forces. Agricultural experts and economists from Tigray and the diaspora should support rebuilding the agricultural sector through investments in the most modern farming techniques, irrigation systems, and climate-resilient crops. More than that, this needs efforts toward revitalizing agro-industries and markets that would enable farmers to move beyond subsistence farming to more commercial and profitable enterprise.
Beyond agriculture, Tigray’s elites must look to industrial development. It is only then that such potential, yet still nascent, manufacturing base in the textile and construction sectors, as well as in renewable energy production, will be developed by leveraging the advantages of Tigray’s geographic location to key markets in Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. An enabling opportunity for Tigrayan entrepreneurs and industrialists to emerge as a production and trade hub does exist. These ambitions will surely be materialized when foreign investment is secured and public-private partnerships are developed, both of which the elites of Tigray are best positioned to lead.
Education and Intellectual Leadership: Building a Foundation for Future Generations
The future of Tigray is in the hands of its youth, and education is the bedrock on which to rebuild intellectual and human capital in this region. But genocidal war has razed the educational infrastructure in Tigray to the ground. Schools, universities, and research institutions were either destroyed or forced to close their doors, thereby denying a generation of students their due right to education. It is now high time for Tigray’s intellectual and academic elites to take center stage and lead in the restoration and reimagining of the education system in the region.
Although the rebuilding of educational infrastructure is the first and foremost, rethinking the role of education within post-war Tigray remains a matter of paramount importance. Elites in academia and education should be advocating for a curriculum to impart traditional academic knowledge that will complement Tigray’s particular challenges of the region. Education should be dealt with as a tool for social cohesion and resilience, thus enabling the young Tigrayans to prepare themselves to become future leaders who would help contribute toward the region’s recovery. Besides, higher education in Tigray has to be rebuilt and strengthened with critical thinking space, research, and innovation.
Tigray has always been a region marked by intellectual rigor, and its universities again need to become centers of excellence. This will be an instrumental process in which the future thinkers, scientists, engineers, and leaders will be developed for the reconstruction and long-term development needs of Tigray. It is incumbent upon the Tigrayan academics within the region and in the diaspora to try to reestablish the intellectual legacy of Tigray by encouraging a culture of inquiry, creativity, and critical analyses.
Governance and Social Cohesion: Building a Just and Inclusive Society
The future of Tigray is not only about rebuilding torn-down physical infrastructure; it is about rebuilding trust, governance, and social cohesion. The genocidal war has torn the social fabric of the region, creating divides and trauma that may take several years to heal. Elites, more so those with knowledge in governance, sociology, and conflict resolution, have a critical role in guiding the region through this very sensitive process.
Tigray’s elites must lead the way in designing systems of governance that are inclusive, participatory, and responsive to the needs of the people. In other words, that would mean reconciling traditional governance structures with modern democratic principles so that every layer within Tigrayan society is represented in the political process. Similarly, elites have to work in collaboration with psychologists, social workers, and community leaders to develop war trauma, reconciliation and peacebuilding programs for deep-seated traumas caused by the war.
It is the leadership, vision, and dedication of the elites that will determine the future of Tigray. The elites will need to come forward with clear directions in which political, economic, cultural, educational, and governance matters should be directed to make sure that Tigray not only survives but thrives in the post-genocidal-war era. Though daunting challenges lie ahead, through strategic guidance and commitment to the long-term success of the region, the elites of Tigray can indeed play a very transformative role in rebuilding an independent, prosperous, just, and resilient Tigray.
