Mekelle: 3 December 2023 (Tigray Herald)
Two blocs-the Saudi-led, and the UAE-led-will utilize MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland. Saudi-led bloc, including Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and now increasingly coordinating with Somalia, Turkey, and Qatar, will react
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to the UAE-led bloc, with robust participation from Ethiopia, Somaliland, and Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The implications are far-reaching: Besides domestic politics in Ethiopia, Somaliland, and Somalia, and potentially in Kenya, geopolitical implications could reach beyond the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, linking the Middle East with North Africa, Horn of Africa, and the Sahel.
Seen in light of the escalating maritime threats, partly due to the Gaza war, the effectiveness of US’s “Operation Prosperity Guardian” could be curtailed.
Sudan, Chad, and UAE were involved in a diplomatic tiff, resulting in the reciprocal expulsion of each other’s diplomats.
SAF, from Port Sudan, labeled the UAE a “mafia state.” RSF trying to control Khartoum could use it to declare itself as legitimate representative of Sudan rendering UAE in indirect control. RSF (Hemeti) and Taqaddum (led by Hamdok) recent meeting in Addis Ababa, and diplomatic support from Ethiopia may propel Hemeti to advance a claim as representative of Sudan to IGAD, to AU and UN.
This is a long shot but not unthinkable.
