Mekelle፡ 12 August 2024 (Tigray Herald)
By Rashid Abdi
The thread on Egypt, Somalia and Ethiopia:
It is factually inaccurate to say MoU with Somaliland is trigger of Egyptian interest in Somalia.
In May 2022 Somalia had a regime change. A pro-Ethiopian president lost power to HSM – a leader with ambivalent attitude towards Ethiopia at the time.
Cairo worried about his Muslim Brotherhood ideology and affiliation but spotted an opportunity to forge strategic cooperation.
It moved in swiftly. Top officials visited Cairo frequently. Some had their families there. This cosy relationship between Cairo and the HSM inner circle worried Addis.
HSM meanwhile pivoted quickly to Eritrea and deepened security partnership while spurning overtures from Addis
Addis interpreted this as mark of hostility and acted accordingly. It reverted to the EPRDF dual-track paradiplomacy – deepening ties with regional Somali federal states and downgrading ties with Mogadishu.
By early 2023, Egypt was a key security player in Somalia, training SNA recruits, supplying weapons, ammunition and treating wounded Somali soldiers in Egyptian military hospitals. This was done while limiting engagement with Addis.
These was interpreted by Addis as a downgrading of relations.
Mogadishu and Cairo began talks on closer strategic cooperation in mid 2023. Reports emerged at the time Somalia was thinking about granting Egypt a military base in south-central. Egyptian army officers, contractors scouted various localities in the Shabelle to establish base.
Egypt also moved on other fronts, cutting defence pacts with East African states.
The news of an Egyptian base in Somalia , coinciding with deadlock over GERD seems to have been the main catalyst for Abiy’s sea access deal with Somaliland.
In Dec 2023, Egypt declared the decade-long talks with Ethiopia over the GERD ‘dead’. Ethiopia had at the time conducted its third filling of the dam.
Both Egypt and Ethiopia have been on a collision course long before the MoU in January 2024.
The cost of the GERD talks breakdown sadly is return to traditional military strategy – proxy warfare, encirclement, deception.
